01 Biden withdraws from the election, Trump wins
On July 21, local time, the current US President Biden announced on social media that he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential election and would support Harris to continue her campaign as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Obviously, the aftershocks of Trump's attack still affected Biden. Not to mention his overwhelming advantage over Biden in the debate, just looking at the strongman image after the shooting, Trump has won the game!
After surviving a disaster, there will be good fortune in the future. Trump's approval rating has soared since the attack, far surpassing his main competitors. According to the calculations of gambling websites, after the shooting, Trump's chances of winning the election rose sharply to 62%, while Biden's chances dropped to 15%. Although gambling websites cannot truly reflect the most accurate public opinion, they can also show from the side that the American people's views on the current election have changed.
If the current situation continues, if the Democratic Party continues to use Biden as its candidate for the next president, not only will it see no hope of winning, it may even lose miserably.
Therefore, it is only natural for Biden to announce his withdrawal. However, in my opinion, unless something unexpected happens, Trump has basically booked the throne of the new US president, and Biden's withdrawal is just a helpless choice made by the Democratic Party after weighing the pros and cons. No matter who runs for the Democratic Party, it is difficult for them to pose a threat to Trump.
Biden’s withdrawal from the election may not necessarily mean the end of an era, but changes in government or political parties often impact existing policies.
So, once Trump, whose governing philosophy is more traditional and conservative, comes to power, will it have a huge impact on the North American online gambling market?
02 Unpredictable Trump and the booming US online gambling industry
In fact, Trump loves to gamble.
Trump's business history is closely tied to the gaming industry, especially the casino industry in Atlantic City. In the 1980s and 1990s, Trump owned and operated several casinos, including the Taj Mahal Casino Resort, the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino, and the Trump Marina. However, these casinos encountered financial difficulties during their operations and filed for bankruptcy protection several times, indicating that Trump's business operations in the physical gaming industry were not all smooth sailing.
The physical gambling industry has not been well developed, so, has Trump invested in the online gambling industry?
There is currently no direct evidence that Trump has ever invested in the online gambling industry, and he has not publicly expressed specific support or opposition to the industry since becoming the US president.
Instead of making any money from gambling, he lost a lot. As a pure businessman, perhaps Trump does not have a good impression of the gambling industry.
But inner likes or dislikes are one thing, and things at the policy level still have to follow procedures.
After entering the White House in 2017, the policies of the Trump team are usually determined by the Republican Party to which he belongs and the legislative agenda of Congress. Gambling policy is largely a state-level matter, and the federal government's involvement is relatively limited. However, the Department of Justice (DOJ) during the Trump administration reinterpreted the Wire Act in 2019, a move that was considered a negative signal for the online gambling industry because it may restrict interstate travel. Online gambling activities.
However, the facts are moving in the opposite direction.
The U.S. online gambling market has flourished during the Trump administration and has not been restricted by the reinterpretation of the Wire Act.
The following are some key time points and events in the development of the US online gambling market over the past decade:
2012: The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) changes its interpretation of the Wire Act to clarify that the act only applies to sports betting, opening the door for states to legalize and regulate online gambling.
2013: New Jersey becomes the third state, after Nevada and Delaware, to legalize online casinos and poker games.
2016-2017: According to chart information provided by The Economist, the total gambling revenue in the United States in these two years was US$119.9 billion, which reflects the huge potential of the US gambling market, even though online gambling was only legal in a few states at the time.
2018: The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), a federal law that had been in effect since 1992 that effectively banned sports in all states except Nevada. Gambling. The ruling opens the door for states to legalize sports betting and online gambling. Subsequently, several states began passing legislation allowing online sports betting and casino gaming. This includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Colorado, Indiana, Illinois, and more.
2019: Multiple states continued to promote legislation on online gambling and sports betting, and the market expanded further. In the same year, the U.S. Department of Justice reinterpreted the Wire Act in an attempt to restrict cross-state online gambling activities, a move that sparked controversy and legal challenges in the industry.
2020: The COVID-19 pandemic led to the closure of brick-and-mortar casinos, accelerating the development of the online gambling market, with more consumers turning to online platforms.
2021: As vaccines are distributed and the pandemic eases, the online gambling market continues to grow, with multiple states announcing record gambling revenues, including contributions from online gambling.
2023: Americans reportedly placed $23 billion in sports betting in the third quarter, 32.7% higher than the same period last year, indicating a landmark year for the sports betting market in 2023.
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Judging from the above timeline, there is no doubt that the real take-off of the US online gambling market occurred during Trump’s administration.
03 The North American online gambling industry may be a destined feast!
All signs indicate that Trump's conservatism is selective and based on the principle of putting America first.
In fact, there is no unified attitude towards the online gambling industry within the Republican Party of the United States, and there are obvious differences, which reflects the different ideologies, moral considerations, and views on business freedom and government intervention within the Republican Party.
But driven by economic interests, even marijuana can be legalized, and further growth of the online gambling industry in North America is inevitable.
The following factors provide strong support for the above view:
1、Regulatory changes
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, states have begun to decide independently whether to legalize sports betting. This decision opened the door to the online gambling market, with several states subsequently passing legislation allowing online sports betting and casino gaming.
2. Market growth
As more and more states legalize online gambling, the market is expected to continue to expand. For example, Michigan opened legal online gambling and online sports betting in early 2021, bringing additional revenue sources to the local area.
Technological advances and shifts in consumer preferences have also contributed to the growth of online gambling, especially as the popularity of mobile devices has made online betting more convenient.
3. Consumer Behavior
The younger generation prefers to use digital platforms for entertainment and gambling, which drives the growth of the online gambling market.
Social casino games continue to gain popularity in North America and Western Europe, demonstrating the democratization of online gambling.
4. Competition landscape
International and local operators have entered the market, and competition has intensified. DraftKings and FanDuel are two of the biggest competitors in North America’s online gambling space, dominating several legalized states.
Technology companies such as Scientific Games are also providing technical support to the gaming industry, including providing online slot machine services in the Canadian province of Alberta.
5. Economic impact
Online gambling generates significant tax revenue for states, helping to support public projects and infrastructure. This is an important reason why more and more states in the United States have legalized online gambling.
6. Responsible Gambling
As the market grows, responsible gaming measures become increasingly important, aimed at protecting players from problem gambling, improving the market's systems and further promoting the development of the industry.
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All the above factors indicate that regardless of whether Trump is elected as the new president as he wishes, the online gambling industry in the United States and even the entire North American region will usher in a major favorable situation with the right time, place and people!
Time: the development of technology and the times, and the closure of a large number of physical casinos during the epidemic
Geographical advantage - To stimulate economic growth, more and more states are opening up online gambling
Renhe - Online gambling is becoming more popular, especially among young people
This is bound to be a market that continues to grow rapidly!
According to historical data, the North American online gambling market has grown at a CAGR of approximately 8%-9% over the past few years. Taking the above factors into account, it is expected that the CAGR in the next few years will likely exceed the above range, especially with the opening of new state markets and increased consumer participation.
In addition to its rapid growth rate, the scale of the North American online gambling market is also astonishing.
In 2023, the total amount of bets on online sports betting in the United States reached $23 billion in a single quarter! Online sports betting alone has such a scale, and what about other types of online gambling projects such as online casino games and online poker? There is no doubt that the scale of the entire US online gambling market is quite large.
According to relevant forecasts, the betting scale of the US sports betting market is expected to reach 155 billion US dollars by 2024.
This is the taste of dollars!
For the U.S. federal government, no matter who is president, faced with such a huge fiscal and tax pie, who would go against money?
