This year, interest in online sports betting on the Olympics is expected to be at an all-time high, driven by the dominance of U.S. basketball and soccer teams. As more states legalize sports betting, activity has surged, allowing millions of Americans to participate.
John Ewing, a spokesman for BetMGM Sportsbook, predicts that this year's Olympics will be "the most heavily bet in the history of legal sports betting." The increased interest stems from an increase in the number of states offering legal sports betting—from 22 states during the Tokyo Olympics to 38 states plus Washington, D.C., today. About 164 million Americans, or 67% of the adult population, can now legally bet on the Olympics, a significant increase from 97 million three years ago, according to Joe Maloney of the American Gambling Association.
The timing of the Paris Olympics also worked in its favor, with the time difference between Paris and New York being only six hours, while the time difference with Tokyo is 13 hours, so many events were scheduled at times that were less convenient for American spectators, according to an analysis published by the Associated Press.
Even more intriguing are the men’s and women’s basketball teams, as well as the women’s soccer team, which are the favorites to win gold at this Olympics. The men’s basketball team, which features stars like LeBron James and Stephen Curry, has odds of -650, meaning bettors would need to bet $650 to win $100. The women’s basketball team, which features notable players like Diana Taurasi and Brianna Stewart, has even higher odds of -1400.
Despite the ridiculously high odds, there is still value in betting on the spread. For example, the US men's team had to win by at least 13 points in their first match to make up a 12.5 point deficit. The Americans ultimately won a dominant 110-84 over Serbia. The women's team faced a similar situation, needing to win by more than 20 points over Japan.
There are no guaranteed outcomes in sporting events
Tim Whitehead of BetRivers pointed out that although Team USA is the favorite, there are no absolute odds in sports betting. He cited a game before the Olympics when the U.S. men's team narrowly beat South Sudan by 43.5 points. This unpredictability adds to the excitement and potential returns of Olympic betting.
The expected advantage for the U.S. is also reflected in the upper and lower limits of the total number of gold medals, which are set at 40.5, with the odds of the U.S. winning the most medals at -2500. China, Britain and Japan are seen as the closest competitors.
Chris Pierce of Caesars Sportsbook expects betting to be up significantly compared to the last Olympics, especially on basketball. “If either (U.S. men’s or women’s) team loses, it’s going to be a huge blow,” he said, noting that 95% of bets so far are in favor of the Americans.
In addition to mainstream sports, betting has expanded into lesser-known disciplines such as speed climbing and breakdancing, which is now an Olympic sport. Kevin Hennessy of Fanatics Sportsbook highlighted the popularity of markets such as the 100-meter race, but noted that betting on points-based sports such as gymnastics is restricted in some states.
