Two municipal elections in Brazil, São Paulo and Porto Alegre, have so far moved R$ 187 million on the foreign platform Polymarket, which hosts sports betting, electoral bets, etc., with cryptocurrencies. The race for the São Paulo mayoralty generated the most interest with the sensation of the first round Pablo Marçal: R$ 185.5 million. The Porto Alegre race moved another R$ 2 million in a month and a half, according to Cláudio Humberto's column in Diário do Poder.
Although the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has created rules to prohibit betting on the 2024 municipal elections in Brazil, the foreign company Polymarket, specialized in statistical predictions in politics, launched bets on the race for Brazilian mayoralties.
The bets operating in Brazil had been offering bets on the municipal elections, but a resolution of the TSE was approved by the Court's Plenary in mid-September, contrary to the global market, where the practice is quite common.
Polymarket, which offers a series of different betting pools, from science to cryptocurrencies and pop culture, ended up filling this gap by not operating in Brazil, but began to accept guesses for the elections in Brazil, only in cryptocurrencies.
Post-Marçal
After the first round in São Paulo and with the defeat of Pablo Marçal, a sensation in this election, the chance of Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) being reelected shot up: 84.5%, predicts Polymarket. The probability of Boulos (Psol) winning is 14%.
Polymarket calculates the chances of victory of the candidates according to the volume of bets each one receives, and Nunes has been leading since September.
Porto Alegre
Mayor Sebastião Melo (MDB) has a 95.5% chance of being reelected, predicts Polymarket. Maria do Rosário (PT) has only a 4.5% chance.
Source: GMB
