Wall Street Bets: Analysts take on Sportradar, Churchill Downs, Boyd Gaming, Red Rock Resorts

Sportradar price target raised

J. P. Morgan analyst Samuel Nielsen wrote October 21 about Sportradar in a statement.

“We are upgrading Sportradar to an Overweight rating (from Neutral),” Nielsen wrote, “and raising our year-end 2025 price target to $15 (was $12) following our recent investor meeting at G2E in Las Vegas with Sportradar CFO, Craig Felenstein, and SVP of Investor Relations & Corporate Finance, Jim Bombassei. We come away incrementally encouraged with Sportradar’s ability to leverage its sports data rights to innovate on product and generate pricing power that is garnering higher share of wallet (especially around live betting), creating a favorable set up for margin expansion as we come out of the most recent rights renewal cycle and into a multi-year period of (what should be) continued top-line momentum and lower operating expense growth.”

Churchill Down estimates lowered

“We are lowering our estimates prior to Q3 earnings for both the Gaming and L&H segments driven by weakness in regional gaming and the delayed opening of The Rose Gaming Resort,” said Jefferies analyst David Katz in an October 17 statement about Churchill Downs.  “Our focus for earnings will be updates surrounding the competitive landscape, the company’s expected opening for its $460 million Dumfries property and the strength of the consumer. We remain confident quarterly results should be a positive catalyst post adjustment. Reiterate Buy.”

Boyd Gaming status revisited

Analyst Joseph Greff of J. P. Morgan October 18 looked at Boyd Gaming.

“Ahead of next Thursday’s 3Q24 earnings release, we are truing up our 3Q24 to account for the last of the publicly released, monthly regional gross gaming revenue reports,” Greff wrote. “We are also revisiting our 4Q24 and 2025 forecasts.

“For the 3Q24, we are modestly raising our Midwest & South Regional EBITDAR forecast to $188.2 million, up from $187.4 million, which compares with the consensus $190.1 million. For Boyd’s Las Vegas Locals segment, we are tweaking lower our 3Q24, moving to $96.3 million, down from $97.4 million (consensus is $96.8 million), to reflect impact of the extreme heat in the summer and a slight moderation of market-wide demand trends.”

Red Rock Resort’s outlook

Greff also looked at prospects for Red Rock Resorts on October 18.

“For the 3Q24 we are lowering our EBITDA forecast to $185.3 million, down from $190.9 million, and compares with consensus $187 million to reflect the impact of the extreme heat in the summer and a slight moderation of market-wide demand trends.

“For the 4Q24, we lower our EBITDA estimate to $202.8 million, down from $214.5 million, and compares with consensus $213 million. In 2025, we project $816 million, down from $836 million, and below what seems to us an aggressive consensus estimate of $847 million.”