According to a recent research report by Citibank, if Thailand legalizes the gambling industry, the country will become the third largest gambling market in the world, surpassing Singapore.
Analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau stated that Thailand has emerged as a highly attractive investment opportunity and "could redistribute the global gambling revenue landscape," even though the first casino is expected to open no sooner than six years from now.
"We expect that, assuming Bangkok receives two licenses, and Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai each receive one, Thailand's total gambling revenue could reach $9.1 billion once fully operational. This would make Thailand's market size surpass Singapore, trailing only behind Macau and Las Vegas (based on current total gambling revenue levels)."
"Considering Thailand's lower gambling tax rate of 17% and relatively lower operating costs (mainly wages and utilities) compared to Singapore, we believe Thailand's EBITDA profit margin could reach 40% to 50%, meaning the EBITDA of Thailand's gambling industry could reach $4.1 billion."
Although the report does not take into account the rise of the Philippines—some industry commentators believe that the Philippines' total gambling revenue could reach $10 billion in the coming years—Citibank expects Thailand's legislative process to be quite swift—similar to Singapore's model in the mid-2000s, and "much faster than Japan."
The report notes that Las Vegas Sands Corp., MGM Resorts International, and Galaxy Entertainment Group from Macau are listed as the top operators preferred by investment banks, most likely to form consortia with local businesses for joint investments.
The analysts wrote: "We estimate that if global casino operators are allowed to invest in entertainment complexes in Bangkok (assuming a 50:50 joint venture with local partners), their EBITDA could increase by 15% to 93%."
