Named Kalshi ('everything' in Arabic), the future betting platform correctly predicted the outcome of the elections in the United States, contrary to research institutes. In recent days, it has also accurately predicted nominations for the top tier of the US government. Kalshi was co-founded by Luana Lopes Lara, a Brazilian born in Belo Horizonte (MG).
Her trajectory is curious. Before studying engineering at MIT, Luana dedicated herself to ballet. She switched from dance to mathematics, and then to the financial market.
As a student in the USA, she met Tarek Mansour, her partner in creating Kalshi. The platform then raised US$ 100 million from venture investors. Currently, there is more than US$ 1 billion in bets there.
Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi has an official license to operate in the United States since 2020. However, the license did not allow betting on political themes, such as elections.
Kalshi sued the US authorities to gain permission to sell electoral futures. The victory in the lawsuit occurred in September 2024, just in time for the elections. Americans could then bet using regular dollars (and not just cryptocurrencies, as is the case with Polymarket).
The prominence that Kalshi and Polymarket have gained in recent weeks is a symptom of a new world being built, whether one likes it or not. Futures betting exchanges have today become essential sources of information.
They compete, in this sense, with traditional media and social networks. They are now central elements to be considered in decision-making.
The impact of this is very profound. These markets are not only used to predict electoral outcomes or the future price of Bitcoin (which they do well). They can also be used to predict the outcome of complex tasks.
For example, betting whether a scientific experiment conducted in the past (and deemed correct) can be repeated today with success. Or even predicting complex institutional decisions. Like a decision from the Supreme Federal Court. Some bet that betting markets can accurately predict all future decisions of a body like the Supreme, with an accuracy margin over 95%.
What if prediction markets began to replace the institutions they can predict? This is exactly what economist Robin Hanson proposes with his concept of "Futarchy" (government by the future).
In his view, prediction markets could decide public policies. The population would democratically choose which goals a government should prioritize. Prediction markets would then test which decisions would be successful in achieving these defined objectives, under the premise that they are efficient in aggregating information and predicting future events.
Source: Folha
