This Saturday (30), the CONMEBOL Libertadores Cup will have a new champion. In an unprecedented final with two Brazilian teams, Botafogo and Atlético Mineiro will face each other at the Monumental de Núñez stadium in Buenos Aires. A survey with more than 1,100 Brazilian fans commissioned by Betfair indicated who will have the largest fan base in the duel. The respondents also commented on what they think of the current format of the competition.
Botafogo stands out with unexpected support
When asked about who they prefer to win the Libertadores, 38.52% of the respondents chose Botafogo, while 28.89% indicated that they will root for Atlético Mineiro and 32.58% stated they have no preference, as their team will not be on the field.
Interestingly, the survey found that the direct rivals of the team from Rio will be cheering for the team. 39.93% of Flamengo fans, 54.24% of Fluminense supporters, and 61.64% of Vasco fans interviewed stated that they will root for the rival team from Rio in the decision.
Atlético Mineiro should not count on much support in the state of Minas Gerais, as only 6.17% of Cabuloso fans stated they will root for their great rival. Among other fan bases, the two that most support Atlético Mineiro are Grêmio (75%) and Athletico-PR (66.67%). In the case of Botafogo, those who appear as the biggest "supporters" for the final are the fans of Atlético-GO, with 66.67%.
In the Betfair betting market, the team from Rio de Janeiro appears as the favorite to win the grand final, with 44% (odd of 2.15) chances, while Atlético Mineiro appears with 25% (odd of 3.75). The chance of the match ending in a draw and going to penalties is 31% (odd of 3) according to the betting house.
Single match or home and away? A balanced dispute
Since 2019, CONMEBOL has implemented the final in a single match on a "neutral" field, a format similar to that used by the UEFA Champions League. The Betfair survey asked Brazilian fans how they see this new model adopted. 47.16% stated they prefer the current model, while 46.44% wish for the return of the decisions in a home and away format, and 6.39% could not opine on which model they prefer.
The respondents also answered whether the presence of the fans in the championship finals impacts the pressure on the players and can influence the outcome of the competition. 39.6% fully agree with this, 44.28% agree, 6.66% are neutral, 6.39% disagree, and 3.06% completely disagree with this statement.
Should CONMEBOL intervene in some cases?
The survey commissioned by Betfair also addressed structural issues that influence the competitiveness of the Libertadores. When asked if the entity should adopt a model of financial Fair Play (or equal spending cap for clubs), 74.26% of Brazilian fans stated that this measure should be adopted, aiming to balance the conditions of all participating clubs.
Fans were also asked if Brazilian teams have more chances to win the Libertadores due to the financial advantage they have over other clubs. 24.21% fully agree with this statement, while 34.65% agree, 20.97% disagree, 7.74% completely disagree, and 12.42% neither agree nor disagree.
Another recent issue involving CONMEBOL was the reduction in the number of spots for Brazilian teams, which in recent history have had much success in the competition with six consecutive titles for teams from Brazil (including 2024) and four of the last six finals were contested between Brazilian clubs. 67.33% of the respondents are against the idea of reducing the number of spots allocated to Brazil in the tournament, while 32.67% are in favor of the reduction.
What about the rivalry?
The Libertadores final promises to have an audience that goes far beyond the fans of Botafogo and Atlético Mineiro. According to data from the survey commissioned by Betfair, 62.47% of respondents stated they would watch the game even if there were no Brazilian teams in the dispute. The study also questioned whether fans always watch the finals, regardless of whether their team is playing or not, and 70.39% stated that yes, regardless of the scenario of teams involved.
The data show that the Libertadores final is more than a sports dispute; it is a reflection of the passion and rivalry that drive football in Brazil. With attractive odds and a historic confrontation, fans and bettors eagerly await the outcome of this chapter of South American football.
*The survey was conducted by Broadminded for Betfair with 1111 Brazilians over 25 years of age, residents of the Southeast region of the country (Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo), through an online panel in November 2024. 54% of respondents were male and 46%, female.
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Source: GMB
