Morgan Stanley, based on data from PAGCOR, calculated that the annualized gross gaming revenue (GGR) of online gambling in the Philippines will reach about $2.4 billion in the third quarter of 2024, accounting for 70% of the country's land-based gambling GGR.
This ratio has risen from about 40% in the first quarter of this year to 60% in the second quarter, and now to 70%.
Although online gambling has been the largest contributor to gambling taxes in the Philippines since the first half of 2024, the brokerage warns that a significant difference between actual tax revenue and expected tax revenue indicates that increased setup fees for newly licensed B2C operators may affect these figures.
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley compared the online/offline gambling ratio of China with that of the United States, where online gambling revenue accounts for only 30% of offline gambling revenue, amounting to $23 billion.
However, the same report noted that although PAGCOR collected about 28 billion Philippine pesos ($490 million) in taxes from online gambling, this figure is still below the $540 million expected by US authorities based on a 35% blended tax rate.
DigiPlus has been leading in the online gaming sector, surpassing Bloomberry in both GGR and EBITDA since the second quarter, capturing 50% of the market share.
Morgan Stanley analysts noted, "DigiPlus has over 30 million registered users, holding a favorable position in a market with a total adult population of 70 million."
According to the brokerage, the competitive landscape in the Philippines will further evolve, with plans to reduce the online gambling tax rate by 5 percentage points to 30% by 2025, while Bloomberry will launch its online gambling application in the third quarter of 2025, targeting a different customer base with a brand distinct from Solaire.
