2025 is fast approaching, and several states in the USA have already started legislating and proposed bills supporting the launch of online gaming.
The legal online gambling in Brazil attracted the most attention in the news stream of 2024, and how the licensed market will navigate its initial phase will spark interest in the industry in the coming months.
Last summer, 113 operators applied for early licenses to enter the market, hoping to be among the first companies to launch the market on January 1.
The Brazilian SPA later issued 66 licenses at the beginning of the year, including 14 formal licenses and 52 temporary licenses. Temporary licenses allow operators to provide services while completing the necessary documents and certifications required by the regulatory authorities.
The legal gambling market in Brazil is still in its initial stage and remains unstable
Clyde Harris, a partner at the technology consulting firm Circle Squared, predicts that although Brazil will still be headline news in 2025, regulators will need time to address issues and implement all necessary regulations. Ultimately, the first year's situation may not indicate the long-term development of this jurisdiction.
Harris: "As the market readjusts and the spread of new regulations impacts, the situation in Brazil will become very unstable."
"The beginning of this year was 'the end of the beginning,' but it is definitely not the end of a major transformation period in Brazil. The market will need time to stabilize, and all changes' impacts will need time to spread. Do not be surprised to see additional regulations or changes to existing ones, as authorities will closely monitor the environment they have created," Harris added.
Harris also believes that the entry of international players into Brazil will have a significant impact on the market trends over the next 12 months, especially as players test their loyalty to local brands and try out new products launched online. BetMGM and Caesar's Sports Betting's Big Brazil are among the first licensed players.
He said: "These operators can fully utilize their existing technology and operational capabilities, combined with their financial resources and marketing skills, to quickly shake up the market and capture a very considerable market share."
2025 will no longer have Brazil
Harris pointed out that although new markets may be launched in 2025, none will have the same impact as Brazil. He believes that other Latin American jurisdictions will make significant modifications to their gambling regulations and provide opportunities for legal gambling, but currently, no other place has the same attractive factors as Brazil.
"Brazil is the world's tenth largest economy, ranks first in total GDP, has a population of over 200 million, and already has a mature gambling industry, which puts it in a very unusual position.
"In 2025, this integration will not be replicated anywhere else. There will definitely be some regions that attract external interest, including other parts of Latin America, Canada, and some areas of Africa, but there will no longer be the same intense 'gold rush' concentrated in one area," Harris concluded.
Is 2025 the year of new betting options?
Every year, the industry madly pursues new and novel betting options, considering that traditional betting products have not changed much over the years. The stock and cryptocurrency trading platform Robinhood revealed in December that it is considering entering the betting market in some form.
It is still uncertain what form Robinhood's gambling products will take, but its trading products have already been widely popular due to their simple and innovative user experience. Additionally, Robinhood has established a strong brand influence among novice retail traders.
On the eve of the November US elections, the US prediction market was able to offer legal election bets for the first time. As of November 6, the day after Trump's victory, the derivatives trading platform Kalshi had obtained over 700 million USD (542.5 million GBP/651.5 million EUR) in contracts during the election cycle.
Gambling's FTP and lottery events
Mick d'Ancona, another partner at Circle Squared, believes that by 2025, the industry will welcome more such new products.
He pointed out: "As the industry begins to focus on lottery products and the trading volume of Robinhood's binary options market for the US elections, alternative ways of 'betting' received widespread attention in 2024.
"The environment that sparked people's interest in these new products will not disappear overnight, so do not expect the demand for these products to vanish. Unless authorized sports betting becomes an available option in [all US states], or these alternative products are no longer an option, lottery and binary options markets will still maintain an important position."
Plucky, a free game and pool betting operator authorized by the UK Gambling Commission, its co-founder Sebastian Lewis predicts that the mindset of gamblers will change this year. Notably, he believes that the social gambling style will return in a new form.
"I expect that in the next 12 months, people's general psychology will change again, to participate in daily social life in a more direct way, especially in the gambling field. We will once again realize the strong emotions and tension brought by the shared gambling experience," Lewis explained.
"Lottery events (our American friends call it joint betting) and social gambling are very common and beloved in workplaces, homes, and among friends. This year, we may take advantage of this niche market to provide bettors with their favorite social gambling opportunities in a modern context.
He concluded: "In the process of chasing 'what's next,' we forgot to focus on what has already proven effective for us social animals."
Can operators withdraw and reevaluate sponsorships before the upcoming marketing restrictions?
Some markets will soon withdraw and restrict gambling companies' sponsorship allowances to protect minors and high-risk bettors. The UK will start banning front-of-shirt sponsorships in the Premier League from the 2025-26 season (starting in August). These measures have already posed challenges to the sports industry, requiring them to find new innovative ways to promote their brands in the sports field.
The Australian government is considering the role of sports sponsorships in the ongoing gambling advertising review and reform in the country. What exactly will be implemented (and when) is still unknown, as the government remains silent on these details.
Despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggesting a complete ban on online gambling ads and discussing restrictions on broadcast and television ads, especially around live sports, this review has been postponed to 2024.
In addition to these new rules, Jai Maw, co-founder and president of Betting Hero, hopes that operators and suppliers will consider new ways to innovate in long-term sponsorship agreements.
"To achieve profitability and optimize customer acquisition and retention, leading operators will closely evaluate the effectiveness of their sponsorships. Sports teams and leagues must innovate, provide added value to maintain and attract partnerships, and ensure mutual benefit in a strictly scrutinized environment," Maw told iGB.
In France, the gambling regulator also asked the four major online gambling operators to reduce their promotional and marketing spending plans for 2025 and reconsider sponsorship agreements to better protect minors. How the industry innovates in the face of new sports advertising methods is worth watching.
Outlook
Of course, 2025 will also continue to crack down on the proliferation of the black market. Many hope to strengthen law enforcement to eradicate illegal operations, but this depends on whether governments and regulatory authorities are truly committed to combating the black market. In many ways, this year is definitely another key year for the gambling industry. Happy New Year!
