During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Marina Bay Sands (MBS) resort in Singapore was eerily quiet, with almost no one in the casinos, hotels, and shopping centers, causing the tourism industry to come to a standstill.
Today, Singapore's economy has fully recovered. Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa have not only reopened but also invested over 13 billion US dollars in expansions, further boosting confidence in Singapore's potential to become a global gambling hub.
Patrick Dumont, President and COO of Las Vegas Sands Group (LVS), which owns Marina Bay Sands, mentioned that the construction plan for the fourth tower of MBS will be one of the finest gambling and hotel structures in the world.
However, the path ahead is not without challenges, as Thailand and the Philippines are also eyeing this "piece of the cake."
On January 13, the Thai Cabinet approved the Integrated Resort Act (legalizing casinos) to develop resort facilities similar to Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa, aiming to boost Thai tourism, employment, and investment.
The bill has now been submitted to the State Council for review and will be presented to the parliament in March, expected to take effect in the first quarter of 2026. Subsequently, the government will open bidding, with construction expected to start before the end of the government's term in 2027, with a construction period of about 3-4 years.
Citi analysts predict that with a gambling-prone population, strong tourism infrastructure, and a government eager to revitalize the economy, Thailand could become the world's third-largest gambling center, following Macau, China, and Las Vegas, USA. LVS CEO Rob Goldstein expressed interest in investing in Thailand's integrated resort projects during last year's financial earnings call.
China Cracks Down on Gambling, Singapore Targets High Net Worth Clients
Industry experts believe that Singapore will dominate the regional gambling market in the next five years. However, due to China's intensified efforts against corruption and gambling, Singapore also faces the challenge of a declining number of high-end gamblers.
Daniel Cheng, a resort consultant and former executive at Hard Rock Group, mentioned that many Chinese VIP clients have been "cut off" by the government's anti-corruption campaign, forcing resort operators to increasingly seek high-net-worth individuals, including businessmen and billionaires. Since its opening in 2010, Marina Bay Sands has become a "jewel" in the eyes of casino operators.
In 2022, after LVS sold its US assets, Marina Bay Sands became its largest source of revenue, generating 3.8 billion US dollars in 2023, with 2.6 billion coming from the casino, accounting for 37% of the group's performance.
Besides attracting VIP gamblers, LVS stated that the so-called IR2 upgrade will target those who enjoy high-end gaming experiences but are not considered VIPs. In recent years, this group has been the focus of casino operators because they seek luxury facilities and high-quality entertainment, which helps increase non-gambling revenue.
Dan Wasiolek, a stock analyst at the international authoritative rating agency Morningstar, estimates that the annual return on investment for the new tower at Marina Bay Sands is about 10-13%. Meanwhile, Resorts World Sentosa also plans to expand the resort, increasing the area of attractions by 50%.
Thailand Enters the Gambling Industry and Competes with Neighboring Countries
The number of international tourists in Singapore increased dramatically from 9.7 million in 2009 to 19.1 million in 2019, almost doubling. Although last year's tourist numbers have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, tourism revenue is expected to reach a new high of 27.5-29 billion Singapore dollars (about 730 billion Thai baht), reflecting the potential of the gambling industry.
Terence Ho, Associate Professor at Singapore University of Social Sciences, insists that casino resorts will continue to be a major tourist attraction in Singapore.
The significant success of Singapore's casino resort business has caught the attention of many countries in the region. The Thai government has been pushing for the legalization of casinos with two main objectives: combating illegal gambling and participating in the gambling industry competition. However, this policy has not received much public support, as a previous poll showed that the majority of the public opposes the legalization of casinos.
Most Thais are Buddhists, with a minority being Muslims, both of which oppose gambling.
Currently, six world-class casino operators are interested in investing in Thailand's entertainment complexes, including: Las Vegas Sands Group, Wynn Resorts Group, Caesars Entertainment Group, MGM China Holdings, Hard Rock International Group, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Group. Local Thai entities such as the Royal Turf Club, Siam Park City Group, and retail giant The Mall have also expressed interest in investing in the gambling business.
Citi predicts that if Thailand's gambling industry is fully operational, by 2031, gambling revenue could reach 9.1 billion US dollars, surpassing Singapore's 8.3 billion US dollars.
Thailand's gambling tax rate is 17%, one of the lowest in Asia, while Macau's tax rate is 40%, and Japan's is 30%. Singapore implements a tiered tax system, taxing ordinary gamblers at 18-22% (depending on the casino's annual total revenue) and VIP clients or high-spending gamblers at 8-12% (depending on the revenue contributed by the client to the casino).
Thailand Enters the Gambling Industry
Shaking up the casinos on the Cambodia border In the Philippines, the gambling industry has long been widely accepted.
According to the Entertainment and Gaming Regulatory Authority (PAGCOR) report, the first integrated resort in the Philippines opened in 2009, and in 2023, the total revenue of the Philippine gambling industry was 280 billion pesos (about 165 billion US dollars). It is noteworthy that Thailand's entry into the gambling industry poses a "threat" to the casinos on the Cambodia border, which heavily rely on Thai gamblers.
Meanwhile, Vietnam is also gradually opening up casinos, with the government hoping to attract foreign tourists to increase local consumption.
Ben Lee, a senior gambling industry consultant and managing partner at IGamiX, stated that Cambodia must break the monopoly of the Naga World entertainment city or offer more competitive rates to survive. Naga World is the only entertainment city in Phnom Penh with a casino operating license.
"It is inevitable that Thailand will open casinos. The question is when it will happen. Once it does, Cambodia will be severely impacted," Ben Lee pointed out, referring to the 30-40 casinos on the Thai-Cambodian border. "When Thai casinos expand to different provinces, Thais will no longer go to Cambodia to gamble."
Thai Casinos Face Political and Regulatory Challenges
Critics point out that in Thailand, political instability and unclear regulatory procedures are the main challenges foreign operators face.
Resort expert Cheng stated, "Political instability and unclear regulatory procedures could lead to the revocation of operating licenses, which is a huge risk for operators." US operators must obtain domestic approval to invest abroad, and any destination with money laundering or criminal risks could affect the approval of their domestic licenses, which is why there are no major US operators in the Philippines.
Traditional casinos are facing long-term challenges, with Las Vegas being a typical example. Currently, the main operators' revenue comes from non-gambling businesses. MGM International Resorts' casino business on the Las Vegas Strip generated 2.1 billion US dollars, accounting for only 24% of its total US market revenue.
"The most important thing for resorts is 'content,' not just the building," Cheng explained. A magnificent building indeed attracts people, but if it lacks interesting entertainment activities and services, visitors will come once for photos and will not return.
