The political scene in the Philippines has recently been turbulent again, with the focus on the impeachment case of Sara Duterte. Although this storm has lasted for months, there is still no conclusion, and various speculations and rumors in society are emerging one after another.
Just as the public is discussing the direction of the situation, suddenly there is news that President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s government has dispatched 7,000 police officers in an attempt to arrest former President Rodrigo Duterte. This news undoubtedly dropped a bomb in Philippine politics, making the already complex situation even more confusing.
The impeachment case of Sara is pending, and undercurrents are surging in the political arena
Since the beginning of the year, Sara's impeachment case has been the core issue in Philippine politics. On January 13, more than 1.6 million INC followers held a large-scale rally in Manila, nominally a religious ceremony, but actually openly supporting Sara and opposing impeachment. This event not only highlighted the political influence of the Duterte family but also showed that Sara's appeal among voters is still strong.
Although Marcos Jr. has publicly broken with Sara, he still appears quite restrained, publicly opposing the impeachment case and supporting the right to peaceful rallies. However, does this mean that Marcos Jr. is really willing to let Sara be safe? Probably not.
On February 5, the House of Representatives finally passed the impeachment case against Sara, with more than 200 members supporting it. The impeachment trial is tentatively scheduled to start on July 30, 2025. In response, Sara did not panic and directly submitted a petition to the Supreme Court, questioning the constitutionality of the impeachment case.
Meanwhile, the Philippine midterm elections are about to be held in May, and the campaign activities have already kicked off last month on the 11th. The results of the midterm elections not only affect the distribution of congressional seats but are also a prelude to the 2028 presidential election. Whether Sara can continue to maintain influence in politics will directly determine Marcos Jr.'s future political layout.
It is worth noting that last year's polls showed that Sara was in a leading position among the 2028 presidential candidates, which undoubtedly made Marcos Jr. feel threatened.
Old Duterte also could not "retire completely"
In addition to Sara's precarious political future, old Duterte seems to be in trouble as well. In recent years, the Marcos Jr. government has frequently used the old "drug war" cases to try to weaken the influence of the Duterte family. Old Duterte stated boldly in the parliament: What I did was right, if there's a problem, arrest me and put me in jail.
In recent campaign activities, Marcos Jr. directly alluded to the "drug war" during Duterte's time and the corruption during the pandemic, even hinting that some senatorial candidates are related to these scandals. For a time, people were panicking, and many were afraid to support old Duterte easily.
Facing the pressure from the Marcos Jr. government, old Duterte did not choose to confront directly but "avoided the limelight" and went to Hong Kong. Last weekend, Sara held an overseas labor gratitude interaction in Hong Kong, stating that she would not resign from the vice presidency. At the same time, old Duterte also responded to rumors about the International Criminal Court possibly issuing an arrest warrant for him. He emphasized that all his decisions during his term were for national security and insisted that his drug policy was aimed at ensuring the safety and order of the Filipino people.
The Philippine Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Office of the Solicitor General (OSG) also pointed out that the Philippines has not yet received any formal diplomatic documents from the ICC regarding the arrest of old Duterte. If there are relevant notifications, they are usually conveyed through the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).
People are speculating whether old Duterte's move is to prepare for possible legal proceedings or to avoid arrest.
7,000 special police deployed, is Marcos Jr.'s victory in sight?
If this news is true, it means that Marcos Jr.'s suppression of the Duterte family has reached a showdown stage. Although the previous verbal battles between the two sides mainly stayed at the electoral level, if a large-scale police force is really used to arrest the former president, it undoubtedly means that Marcos Jr. no longer fears the influence of old Duterte and even wants to completely eliminate his power in Philippine politics!
However, is it really that simple? Although Marcos Jr. is currently in power, the Duterte family's foundation is still solid, especially in the southern region where they still have a large number of supporters. As long as Sara's impeachment case is pending, Marcos Jr. still faces huge political resistance every day.
The Philippine political scene is full of uncertainties, and supporters of the Duterte family, military forces, and the opposition may all play a decisive role at critical moments. In other words: Although Marcos Jr. has the upper hand, whether he can completely defeat the Duterte family is still far from a conclusive moment.
In the coming months, the results of the midterm elections, Sara's impeachment trial, and whether old Duterte can make a comeback will all be key nodes that determine the political landscape of the Philippines. If Sara successfully overcomes the crisis, or if old Duterte can rise again, then Marcos Jr.'s victory may still be reversed!
Conclusion
The deployment of 7,000 special police seems to show that Marcos Jr. has already taken the lead, but whether this means he has completely defeated the Duterte family is still an unresolved question. After all, it is only a police deployment and no arrests have been made yet!
The Philippine political scene has always been full of drama, and in the next few months, there may be more unexpected changes. And the final victory or defeat will depend on the choice of voters and how the power struggle in the political arena ends!
