Nigeria has a population of over 200 million, a significant portion of whom are deeply entrenched in the gambling sector, making it easy to assume that Nigeria has the largest gambling industry in Africa.
But is this really the case?
Nigeria is one of the top three gambling nations in Africa, with South Africa and Kenya being the other two on the list, but the ranking order depends on the metrics considered.
In terms of the sheer number of bettors, there really is no competition. Nigeria's population is more than double that of South Africa and Kenya, thus it has more gamblers than the other countries.
In fact, it is estimated that over 60 million Nigerian adults engage in sports betting. This is almost the entire population of South Africa and exceeds the 54 million people living in Kenya.
However, when discussing the gambling market, population is just one of many metrics considered, and it is certainly not the most important factor.
This is usually about how much money the industry generates and circulates, and this is precisely where Nigeria falls short.
In terms of total gambling revenue, South Africa is clearly the leader in Africa. It is claimed that South Africa controls 40% of the market share. By the end of 2023, South Africa's gambling revenue is expected to break the $500 million mark.
South Africa may have a smaller population than Nigeria, but the country's stronger economy and higher GDP per capita make up for it. On average, South African gamblers place much larger bets than their Nigerian counterparts.
South Africa also benefits from having a more developed gambling industry. While Nigeria still heavily relies on sports betting and lotteries, South Africa is very dependent on casinos, which are the country's largest gambling vertical.
Considering that casino players generally place higher stakes than sports bettors and lottery players, the South African gambling industry is able to generate more money.
Another metric for measuring the size of the gambling market is the number and type of operators in the country.
Nigeria has quite a few lotteries, but only about 50 sports betting operators.
Kenya is particularly strong in the sports betting business, especially in their online space. According to the gambling affiliate giant My betting Sites Kenya, Kenya has over 80 licensed betting companies.
Kenya can arguably be considered the best country in Africa for financial inclusion, mainly thanks to the MPesa mobile money platform. This makes it extremely easy for the entire population to deposit and withdraw funds with gambling operators.
Clearly, Nigeria has a long way to go before it can surpass its rivals. It has the population, but not enough purchasing power.
Moreover, international gambling companies generally prefer countries like Kenya over Nigeria, because the gambling regulations there are more clear.
Nigeria's gambling policies are generally still vague, and the country's online gambling laws lack clarity.
The fact that there are multiple regulatory bodies does not help either.
The National Lottery Regulatory Commission is a federal agency, but several states like Lagos, Oyo, and Anambra also have their own independent gambling commissions.
State and federal agencies do not always agree, which clearly does not encourage potential operators to enter the market.
Nigeria has a huge gambling market, but it has not reached its potential size. The country's poor economic condition and unclear gambling regulations greatly reduce the industry's revenue potential.
