In recent years, under the strong measures of Thailand and the continuous pressure from the Chinese government, various local armed groups in Myanmar have taken action, arresting and deporting large numbers of telecom fraud personnel. However, various signs indicate that these crackdowns are full of pretense and intrigue, and the attitudes of various forces are intriguing.

BGF's "Rescue Operation": Pressure and Calculation Coexist

The Border Guard Force (BGF) of Myanmar's Karen State is currently one of the local armed groups with the strongest crackdown on telecom fraud parks. According to official data, BGF has rescued no less than 5,000 Chinese citizens in several parks in Myawaddy, but so far, China has only received more than 600 people. It is reported that the repatriation of the second batch of Chinese citizens has been completed, with about 1,439 people repatriated.

According to the latest data from the Karen State Border Guard Force (BGF), a total of 2,051 Chinese people have been withdrawn so far.

However, it was previously said that the third round of repatriation would take place from March 13 to 14, with an expected repatriation of 810 people. But there has been no movement yet.

However, the Wa State Judicial Committee, today, officially handed over 16 Chinese nationals involved in fraud crimes and 2 Chinese nationals involved in illegal activities to the Chinese side at the Meng Ah port in Mongla County.

But if you calculate carefully, even after the third batch of repatriations is completed, there are still nearly 2,000 people stranded in Myanmar. The living conditions of these people during their stay in Myanmar and when they can be repatriated are unknown.

BGF internal official Naing Maung Zaw frankly stated that keeping these telecom fraud personnel for a long time is a heavy burden for BGF, and as a result, they had to deploy an additional 2,000 security personnel to maintain order.

Moreover, the daily basic expenses of these detained people, such as meals and electricity, amount to 200 million Myanmar kyats (about 690,000 RMB), while the daily per capita cost of Chinese citizens is about 30,000 Myanmar kyats (about 104 RMB).

However, the plight of the telecom fraud personnel is far more cruel than the numbers suggest.

According to submissions from Chinese people staying at the Myawaddy Supervision Bureau, they are controlled by soldiers every day, with food shortages, expensive supplies, poor sanitary conditions, and even abuse by armed personnel. What's worse, when someone conflicts with soldiers due to anxiety, the soldiers directly load their guns and threaten them, and suppress them with batons and electric batons. In two words, it's "terrible"!

BGF's current actions seem like a "full-scale crackdown on telecom fraud," and they even issued a statement urging countries to take their citizens away as soon as possible, but in reality, it looks more like a bitter trick. The slow progress of repatriation not only increases their economic burden but also gives them more bargaining chips, perhaps to exchange for more benefits in front of the international community and the Chinese government.

One might ask, is the repatriation of 5,000 people a large number for China? Not really! China does not lack the hardware to detain these people, nor does it lack the economic conditions, and in recent years, China has been cracking down on cross-border telecom fraud crimes, so there is no reason to ignore so many suspects. The only possibility is that BGF does not want to release people so quickly! If all the people are released, it would mean they no longer have "hostages" in hand, which could invite armed attacks. What then?

Therefore, they can only release people batch by batch, little by little. The second batch still has more than 1,400 people, and the third batch is only half of this number.

PS: According to media reports, the Philippines is also planning to repatriate some POGO workers in the next 2-3 weeks, with Chinese likely making up no less than half. What's terrifying is that some of these people are undergoing dialysis treatment, and some have even been diagnosed with HIV. If these people are sent back to their country, it really is like sending a time bomb back!

DKBA's "Two-Faced Approach": Expelling Chinese People and Building New Parks

Compared to BGF's "superficial cooperation," the approach of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) is more direct: neither mass arrests nor cooperation with repatriation, but a "dual approach" of expulsion and reconstruction.

On February 9, DKBA issued a statement, ordering all Chinese people to leave their jurisdiction immediately and promising to strengthen patrols to prevent Chinese people from re-entering, while warning that anyone who violates the order will face legal responsibilities. Although it seems righteous, DKBA's real intention is clear—they do not want to completely eradicate the telecom fraud industry, but are starting anew at the Myanmar-Thailand border.

It is rumored that the Phaya Tong Su telecom fraud area in Myanmar has already accommodated 20,000 Chinese people who fled from Myawaddy, and those wishing to enter the area need to pay Colonel Ewan 100,000 Thai baht per person for the road fee.

In this area, Chinese "bosses" not only carry handguns but also hire DKBA soldiers as private bodyguards with a monthly salary of 8,000 Thai baht per person.

It is worth noting that the monthly salary of DKBA soldiers is only 1,500 Thai baht.

Moreover, the surveillance system in this area is quite strict, with DKBA soldiers responsible for surveillance rotating every month to prevent the establishment of power or assistance in helping trapped telecom fraud victims escape.

More importantly, earlier in February, the Chinese government requested the arrest of 10 Chinese gray industry gang leaders hiding in Myanmar's Shuigu Valley and their repatriation to China, but there has been no progress so far. Moreover, 9 of them have already fled to Phaya Tong Su! DKBA also sold land worth billions of Thai baht to them, continuing the telecom fraud!

According to the latest intelligence, DKBA is building a new telecom fraud base in the Zeenapin area, 15 kilometers away from the Phaya Tong Su telecom fraud area, and its scale is astonishing!

As revealed by the media, the land along the left side of the A2 highway has been enclosed by brick walls, covering an area of more than 40 hectares, approximately equivalent to 560 standard football fields! The land here has been leveled, and it is expected to be used to build residential areas to accommodate Chinese gray industry personnel moving from Shuigu Valley and Phaya Tong Su.

Large generators have already been installed, just waiting for the wave of arrests to pass, after which the telecom fraud gangs will move into this area. It only takes a 4-hour drive from this area to Myawaddy!

The area is fully equipped with facilities, including gas stations, hospitals, granaries, and dining options. Although some areas are still under construction, the core operational framework has already been established. Nearby, within a kilometer, it is rumored to be a base for the DKBA armed forces!

In conclusion, the likelihood of these Chinese gray industry gang leaders being repatriated to China is extremely slim!

And DKBA's strategy is also very clear: rather than cooperating with China to repatriate telecom fraud personnel, it is better to continue operations in a new location. Their statement seems to be maintaining order, but in reality, it is reshuffling the cards, clearing out the old den while making room for the new fraud base.

What's even more amusing is that BGF announced that they would turn Shuigu Valley into a tourist area, and they are currently undergoing large-scale infrastructure construction.

Many people gasp in disbelief: Who would believe that? Who would dare to go?!

Myanmar's Complex Forces, Difficult to Eradicate Telecom Fraud

The local forces in Myanmar are complex, and the interest chains behind the telecom fraud industry are even more intertwined. Whether it's BGF or DKBA, their attitudes appear to be "actively fighting," but in reality, the economic benefits, personnel involvement, and power distribution brought by telecom fraud make it impossible for them to truly take decisive action.

1. The temptation of money:

The telecom fraud industry generates profits of billions of dollars each year, and even in war-torn Myanmar, this wealth cannot be ignored.

Participants include not only local armed groups but also members of the Myanmar military, with several officers from the Myanmar Northeast Military Region detained for investigation due to involvement in telecom fraud.

For example, as mentioned above, near the new telecom fraud base, as per tradition, any oil tanker passing through this road must pay 3,000 Thai baht, regardless of entry or exit. And this money is divided among KNU (40%), Colonel Ewan's DKBA (40%), and the Myanmar military (20%).

2. The struggle for power:

Various local armed groups all try to get a share of the telecom fraud industry. Even if they publicly support the crackdown, they privately calculate how to continue profiting. Some hope to exchange for conditions favorable to themselves, while others seize the opportunity to suppress other forces, attempting to be the "cuckoo in the nest."

For example, after the Northeast Military Region of Myanmar fell last August, the government forces regrouped in Mong Yai, an important foothold for the relocation of telecom fraud in northern Myanmar.

3. The dark side of human nature:

Most of the telecom fraud personnel who are rescued are ordinary people who were deceived into entering the parks. However, in this international game, their fate has become a bargaining chip for various parties.

BGF "keeping" these people is not only a burden but also capital. They will only truly advance the repatriation work when it aligns with their interests.

Conclusion: Myanmar's Telecom Fraud Underworld, Not Easily Curtained

China, Thailand, and Myanmar's governments recently held a ministerial coordination meeting on joint crackdown on telecom fraud, emphasizing the need to intensify efforts to eradicate transnational telecom fraud crimes and establish a normalized international law enforcement cooperation mechanism. But the reality is, this game is far from over.

BGF's "pretend arrests" reveal the slow progress of repatriation and chaotic management;

DKBA appears "tough" in expelling Chinese people, but is secretly building a new fraud base;

The Myanmar government's military also has personnel involved in fraud, and local forces are also colluding with each other over telecom fraud interests.

For Myanmar, the telecom fraud industry is both a "trouble" and a "cash machine," and this "crackdown" operation may just be another redistribution of interests among various forces. Eradicating telecom fraud completely? That's impossible, at least until the balance of interests is disrupted. Myanmar's telecom fraud underworld will continue to unfold!

Look, a netizen revealed that Thailand plans to restore some of the restricted wifi networks in the Myawaddy area! That's loosening up!

We will wait and see how the situation develops!