The International Criminal Court (ICC) has officially issued an arrest warrant for former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, accusing him of crimes against humanity in his "war on drugs." That evening, he was arrested at the airport and forcibly taken to The Hague, Netherlands.
This incident has shaken the political landscape of the Philippines, with academia and human rights organizations seeing it as a victory in the field of human rights. However, it is widely believed to be a casualty of political maneuvering—the power struggle between the two political dynasties of the Duterte family and the Marcos family has now fully surfaced.
Why did former allies turn against each other? Political calculations under the competition for power
In the 2022 Philippine elections, the Duterte family joined forces with the Marcos family, successfully seizing power. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. was elected president, while Duterte's daughter Sara Duterte served as vice president, initially agreeing on a "power transition" that would support Sara's presidential candidacy in 2028.
However, the power struggle never ceased, and the honeymoon period of "shared power" quickly broke down:
🔹 Sara requested to be appointed as the Minister of Defense, but Marcos appointed her as the Minister of Education, which was seen as marginalizing her influence in the government;
🔹 The Marcos administration overturned Duterte's China-friendly policies, turning to cooperate with the United States and taking a tough stance on the South China Sea issue, directly ignoring Duterte's diplomatic legacy;
🔹 In February this year, the House of Representatives suddenly impeached Sara, accusing her of corruption and threatening President Marcos' security. If the impeachment is successful, she will be permanently disqualified from running for president.
These changes indicate that the Marcos family may have abandoned the promise to support Sara in 2028 and is attempting to completely eliminate the influence of the Duterte family.
Behind the ICC arrest warrant: Political calculation or human rights justice?
Although Duterte's "war on drugs" had long been criticized by the international community, the Philippine government had previously refused to cooperate with the ICC investigation. However, it seems that the Marcos government has tacitly allowed the ICC's actions in the face of the "cleansing war" against the Duterte family's power.
🔹 Marcos had publicly stated that the Philippines would not cooperate with the ICC, but the swift action of the ICC now raises speculation: Did the government allow it behind the scenes?
🔹 Duterte's arrest coincides with Sara facing impeachment. Are the timings of these two major events purely coincidental, or carefully arranged?
Changes in the Philippine political landscape: In politics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests
The future of the Duterte family is filled with uncertainty. If Sara is impeached, the Duterte power may completely exit the Philippine political scene. For the Marcos family, the cost of eliminating an ally might be the loss of support from the southern population in the future.
The betrayal among temporary allies is not uncommon in Philippine and global politics. As political commentators say, "In politics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent enemies."
