Duterte is still detained at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, and after last week's trial, due to health issues, the judge very "humanely" postponed his next trial to September this year.
This also gives Duterte and the Marcos family enough time to "manipulate" this matter.
After Duterte's arrest, the domestic situation in the Philippines began to show signs of instability, and many of Duterte's supporters took to the streets, demanding an explanation from the Marcos Jr. government, which further complicated the situation in the Philippines.
According to Philippine media, on the evening of March 15, an explosion occurred in Mindanao, Duterte's "stronghold".
A group of unidentified armed men on motorcycles threw hand grenades at the army base in Datu Saudi Ampatuan City, injuring four soldiers.
After the attack, the Philippine military quickly launched a manhunt, but the attackers took advantage of the complex terrain to escape.
According to Colonel Roden Orban, spokesperson for the 6th Infantry Division, at a press conference on March 16, the suspects arrived at the military base in Datu Saudi Ampatuan City on motorcycles and threw hand grenades inside.
The case is currently under investigation, but there are many doubts about it.
This incident appears to be a routine attack by local armed forces.
But the timing of the event is very clever.
The trial of Duterte with the International Criminal Court (ICC) currently shows no progress. Duterte's trial also involves a power struggle between two major families in the Philippines, and the political implications behind this attack are indeed intriguing.
The attack is highly suspicious, let's first look at the motives of the attackers
On the surface, this attack fits the characteristics of the long-standing armed conflict in Mindanao.
The area is an active zone for anti-government armed groups such as the New People's Army (NPA), and strategic locations like the "SPMS Corridor" have always been battlegrounds between the military and armed militants.
If combined with the current political situation, the motive for the attack may be far from a simple act of resistance.
The first layer of doubt concerns the source of the weapons and the planning of the action.
Hand grenades, a type of military weapon, are restricted in civilian circulation in the Philippines, and the attackers were able to precisely throw hand grenades in a "high-risk strategic location" under high military alert, and then escape unscathed. This attacker is clearly very familiar with the local terrain and military deployments.
Mindanao, as a stronghold operated by the Duterte family for decades, has very close ties with local armed forces, even having been incorporated under Duterte's command through "amnesty" methods.
This makes one wonder whether the attack was a "warning counterattack" against the recent high-pressure policies of the Marcos government.
The second layer of doubt points to the sensitivity of the timing.
The day before the event (March 14), Duterte had just appeared in court at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, insisting he was willing to "take responsibility" for the drug war, but refusing to acknowledge the charges of "crimes against humanity".
After the attack, Duterte's daughter, Vice President Sara, publicly called on supporters to remain vigilant, hinting that the family might face greater political persecution.
At this time, the "turmoil" in Mindanao could divert international public opinion from Duterte's trial and also create an image of Duterte as a "persecuted" figure, gaining sympathy from domestic supporters.
After Duterte was arrested for "crimes against humanity", it triggered a series of chain reactions within the Philippines.
Combined with this attack, if the explosion in Mindanao is interpreted as "the Marcos government's inability to maintain public order", it could weaken Marcos' international image as a "law and order president", while also providing Duterte's supporters with an excuse of "central government persecution of localities".
Previously, Duterte's allies had openly warned that if Duterte continues to be detained, it could accelerate the independence movement in Mindanao.
Marcos has also recently accelerated the purge of the Duterte family, including impeaching Vice President Sara and issuing search warrants threatening to raid the Duterte family's homes.
For safety, the Duterte family now urgently needs to stabilize Mindanao as a "base".
Mindanao is very important to the Philippines. The Marcos government will not easily let it "independently".
Mindanao accounts for nearly one-third of the Philippines' land area, contributing 43% of the country's agricultural products and 86% of its bauxite resources, but has long been subject to central "blood-sucking" development policies.
For this reason, Duterte has repeatedly hinted at supporting Mindanao's autonomy, even suggesting the possibility of "independent nation-building".
If this attack exacerbates the contradiction between local and central governments, it could become a catalyst for the independence movement.
After Duterte's arrest, Duterte's allies have begun calling on major countries like Russia to recognize Mindanao's "belligerent entity status", hoping to internationalize the local conflict.
Once the topic of independence ferments, the Duterte family might use the banner of "national self-determination" to transform from "prisoners" to "founding leaders".
