In 2025, Thailand is experiencing an unprecedented dual crisis—a natural tremor from deep within the Earth's crust, and a political-economic shake-up originating from Washington. These two "earthquakes," though different in nature, are jointly testing the crisis response capabilities of the Pei Tongtan government.
The Wrath of Nature: Earthquake Exposes Structural Weaknesses
On March 28, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar affected Thailand, causing a 30-story building under construction in Bangkok, built by a Chinese company, to collapse completely, making it the only building in the city to do so. This incident not only caused significant casualties but also triggered widespread questioning of building quality and regulatory systems. Preliminary investigations suggest that the collapsed building might have used substandard steel and adopted a "beamless slab" structure, which has been phased out in earthquake-prone areas.
This natural disaster quickly turned into a political test. As the national leader, Prime Minister Pei Tongtan personally directed the rescue efforts at the scene, but his government's challenges go far beyond that. The earthquake revealed the lack of earthquake-resistant standards in Thai construction—although new regulations were introduced after 2009, it is estimated that less than 10% of buildings are truly earthquake-resistant. More seriously, the incident has intensified public concerns about the quality of Chinese-funded projects, which may affect future foreign investment.
Trade War Impact: The "Economic Earthquake" of US Tariffs
While Thailand was busy with post-disaster responses, Washington dropped an "economic bomb." On April 2, the Trump administration announced the imposition of tariffs on several Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, which faces a punitive rate of 37%. This decision directly hits the lifeline of the Thai economy—export trade, with an expected reduction in export value of 700 billion to 1 trillion Thai baht this year.
The most severely affected are Thailand's top five products exported to the US: computer equipment (24.9%), communication equipment (11%), rubber products (10.6%), semiconductors (5.8%), and automotive parts. The Bank of Thailand has warned that the Thai baht has entered a depreciation channel, while J.P. Morgan has raised the probability of a global recession to 60%.
Political Economy under Dual Crises
These two crises have produced a peculiar resonance effect at the political level. Natural disasters always test the government's emergency capabilities, while economic crises test its governance wisdom. The Pei Tongtan government must now simultaneously address:
Building Safety and Urban Resilience Construction: A comprehensive review of ongoing projects, especially major projects involving Chinese investment, and acceleration of earthquake reinforcement for old buildings.
Trade Diversification Strategy: In addition to negotiating with the US, there is an urgent need to explore new markets, strengthen economic and trade ties within ASEAN and with China.
Economic Stimulus Plan: Provide targeted support for industries affected by export damage, stabilizing the job market.
Political Image Shaping: Crisis management is a critical moment to establish leadership authority, Pei Tongtan needs to draw on his father Thaksin's performance during the 1997 financial crisis.
Thailand in the Geopolitical Chess Game
The US tariff policy clearly targets China's "backdoor countries" in the supply chain, putting Thailand in a dilemma between the US and China. Unlike Vietnam, which quickly declared its willingness to impose zero tariffs on US goods, Thailand has taken a more cautious approach—Finance Minister Pi Chai will lead a delegation to the US for negotiations, emphasizing that Thailand is a "reliable long-term partner" of the US.
This balancing act reflects Thailand's traditional diplomatic wisdom, but also faces severe challenges: how to mitigate the impact of US tariffs without offending major trade partner China, and how to find its place between the US-led old order and China's "Belt and Road" new system?
In the context of deep adjustments in the global economic structure and intensified regional competition, Thailand is also actively exploring the legalization of the gambling industry as a new pivot for economic transformation.
Facing the reality of sluggish growth in traditional industries, the Thai government is turning its attention to this industry, once considered a "gray area," attempting to build a regulated, transparent gambling market system to inject new growth momentum into the economy.
This move not only requires breaking through long-standing social concept constraints but also needs to display extraordinary wisdom in policy design—establishing a strict regulatory framework to prevent social risks, designing a reasonable tax mechanism to increase fiscal revenue, balancing the entry of international capital with the protection of the local economy, and considering the tension between cultural traditions and modern economic development.
If this transformation can be successfully advanced, it may reshape Thailand's role in the Southeast Asian economic map, upgrading it from a tourist destination to a regional entertainment economic center, opening up new imaginative spaces for economic recovery in the post-pandemic era.
Just as the 1997 financial crisis shaped Thaksin's political legend, the dual crises of 2025 could similarly become a turning point in Pei Tongtan's political career.
However, today's challenges are more diverse and complex—when a natural "earthquake" meets an economic "earthquake," Thailand needs not only a disaster relief prime minister but also an economic helmsman capable of navigating the global counter-currents.
