The American prediction market trading platform Kalshi has officially launched a single-game trading market for Major League Baseball (MLB), allowing users to trade on the outcome of each game. Following the recent launch of NBA playoff contracts, this marks an acceleration in Kalshi's strategic deployment in the sports market, gradually building a "non-traditional gambling" sports financial trading ecosystem.
Main "non-gambling" positioning, profit model avoids gambling red lines
Although its business model appears similar to traditional gambling on the surface, Kalshi's CEO emphasizes that the platform should be defined as a "prediction market exchange," not a gambling platform. He pointed out that Kalshi does not profit from users' losing trades but instead earns a fixed fee through matchmaking transactions. This mechanism fundamentally differentiates Kalshi from traditional gambling companies and helps it expand business in states where gambling is not yet legalized.
Currently, among all 50 states, 11 states have not yet legalized sports gambling, but Kalshi's contract structure can operate compliantly in some states, demonstrating the "penetrative" nature of its business model in terms of regulations.
Expansion pace accelerates, targeting NHL and more events
It is reported that during the first two contracts of the NBA playoffs, Kalshi has already achieved over $1 million in trading volume, showing strong market attraction and liquidity of sports contracts. The launch of the MLB contracts not only enriches the product line but also accelerates the platform's coverage of mainstream American sports.
In the next phase, Kalshi plans to launch a single-game market for the National Hockey League (NHL). This will be the next "natural extension" following NBA and MLB, and is expected to bring new user groups and trading activity to the platform.
Background: From political predictions to experimenting with sports financialization
Last year, Kalshi was approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch contracts involving political election outcomes, a rare breakthrough in U.S. regulatory history. With its status as a "legal exchange," Kalshi is attempting to create a comprehensive event trading platform covering politics, economics, sports, and other areas, blurring the boundaries between traditional gambling, financial markets, and prediction science.
