Since his arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2025 for "crimes against humanity," former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been detained in The Hague, Netherlands.
Despite his legal team's repeated emphasis that the Philippines had already withdrawn from the Rome Statute, and that the ICC has no jurisdiction, the judicial process continues, and the likelihood of Duterte returning to the country soon is almost nil.
However, even though he is imprisoned, Duterte has not stepped away from the political stage. On the contrary, his family is turning this legal storm into a powerful political mobilization for the upcoming May 2025 midterm elections, gathering momentum.
Duterte Family: Touching Hearts with "Last Wishes" to Gather Sympathy Votes
Duterte's supporters have never dispersed. After his arrest, his legal team publicized his dying wish to "die in his homeland," which resonated strongly. Vice President Sara Duterte quickly gained a large amount of voter sympathy and support.
In Duterte's political stronghold—Davao City, tens of thousands of people held rallies, drones formed a huge portrait of Duterte in the sky, expressing loyalty and remembrance. Meanwhile, his second son Sebastian and grandson Rodrigo II also announced their candidacy for local positions, with the family's influence still firmly controlling Mindanao Island, with a support rate of 87%.
Even though detained abroad, Duterte himself announced his candidacy for Mayor of Davao City, continuing to exert influence through the "family network." Although Duterte is not present, "Duterte-style politics" remains deeply rooted.
Marcos Government's Countermeasures: Freezing Assets, Promoting Impeachment
Facing the formidable Duterte family, the current President Marcos Jr. chooses to suppress his political opponents with tough measures: freezing the Duterte family's assets and pushing Congress to initiate impeachment proceedings against them.
This confrontation is no longer a traditional party struggle, but a direct clash between two major families in national governance. Now, this power struggle between families is attracting external forces to "place their bets."
Shift in the Wealth Alliance: Philippines' Richest Family Switches Support to Duterte Camp
The most notable shift comes from the Philippines' richest, the Villar family. In recent years, due to the Marcos government's pro-American policies, Chinese investments withdrew, and infrastructure projects stalled, causing their business profits to plummet by 37%. To recover economic interests, the Villar family gradually shifted from the pro-Marcos camp to support Sara Duterte, hoping to restore cooperation with China after her rise to power.
This reorganization of the "wealth alliance" not only shakes the financial foundation of Marcos but also directly affects the upcoming midterm election trends.
Political Betting Approaching: Midterm Elections Could Be Key to "Pardoning Duterte"
This midterm election will directly determine the fate of the Duterte family. If Sara's camp wins a majority in the Senate, not only could it block her own impeachment case, but it could also push for legislation to pardon her father. More importantly, this would lay the foundation for the 2028 presidential election, significantly increasing Sara's chances of running for president.
If the Duterte family regains power, the Philippines' policy towards China may return to the former president's approach of "shelving disputes and deepening cooperation," pulling out of the current economic slump.
Marcos' South China Sea Strategy: Desperate Provocation or Reluctant Response?
Facing a plummeting domestic approval rating (only 14%), and continuous economic deterioration (unemployment rate at 8.3%, inflation rate at 9.8%), the Marcos government chooses to take risks in the South China Sea issue.
On April 20, the Philippine Navy's frigate number 36 forcefully entered the waters around China's Huangyan Island and was expelled by the Chinese Southern Theater Navy. This is not the first provocation, as the Marcos government frequently creates friction in the South China Sea, mainly for three reasons:
To please the United States: Actively cooperating with the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," allowing the expansion of nine military bases, hoping to exchange for strategic and financial support;
To shift the focus of contradictions: Using "nationalism" to stir up the election situation, covering up its failures in economic governance;
To deal with regional isolation: As countries like Vietnam and Malaysia have established cooperation mechanisms with China, Marcos' sense of isolation intensifies, trying to gain attention and support from ASEAN countries through confrontation with China.
However, these actions might backfire, making the Philippines a "strategic pawn" in the US-China rivalry.
Can Duterte Return Home with "Votes"? Midterm Elections Decide Fate
This midterm election is not only about parliamentary seats but also a "turnaround battle" for the Duterte family. If the pro-Duterte faction wins the election, Sara will have the dominant power, her father might receive political amnesty, and the Duterte family could achieve a historic return.
Conversely, if the election is lost, Duterte might stay in The Hague for a long time, and Sara's political future could also be limited.
This is a complex game involving public opinion, financial power, diplomacy, and justice, and the future direction of the Philippines will also be revealed in this midterm election.
