While Manila is still struggling with political turmoil, the southern city of Davao is witnessing the triumphant return of a "political dynasty". In the Philippine midterm elections held on May 12, 2025, former President Rodrigo Duterte, despite being embroiled in the International Criminal Court in The Hague, won the Davao City mayorship with a staggering 62% of the vote, shocking the national political scene.
This victory is not only a political miracle but also a declaration of public opinion—"Even if he is abroad, we want him back". In Davao, this is a testament to the loyalty and trust in the Duterte family. And this signal did not stop locally.
The Duterte family rises to power, reshaping the Senate's power map
The Duterte family members were almost all elected:
The youngest son, Sebastian, successfully re-elected as vice mayor;
The eldest son, Paolo, re-elected as the congressman for the first district;
Two grandsons are leading significantly in the city council and congressional elections.
Moreover, politicians supported by the family also secured key positions nationwide. In the Senate elections, at least 5 of the 12 seats went to the Duterte-Sara camp, including former national police chief "Bato" dela Rosa and Sara's confidants. President Marcos' allies performed poorly, with only one entering the top five, and the previously stable senatorial candidate Tulf only tentatively ranked fourth.
This is not just an election, but the beginning of a power restructuring. The liberal camp also unexpectedly warmed up, with former Senator Bam Aquino and Bangilinan ranking in the top five, showing that voter dissatisfaction with traditional political forces is rapidly gathering.
Sara Duterte: From Vice President to the core of the opposition
Facing the upcoming congressional session and a potential impeachment crisis, Vice President Sara quickly acted. Hours after the election, she publicly announced in Davao the formation of a "strong and principled opposition alliance", intending to transcend party lines and directly represent the disappointed and anxious public opinion.
Her statement is not just a simple political posture. The current situation is crucial for her—if Marcos controls the entire Senate, Sara would have no defense in the impeachment case. But now, with the help of the election, the Duterte faction has established a bridgehead in Congress, and Sara also holds the initiative to attack or defend.
Marcos isolated, unity government on the verge of disintegration
The Marcos government almost suffered a severe setback in this election. The president, who had been promoting a "unity government", now faces a Senate out of control and a House of Representatives being forced into a corner. His conflicts with the Duterte camp are irreconcilable, and Sara has begun to move away from a neutral stance, openly organizing opposition forces.
The Duterte family is not satisfied with just Davao; they have laid out their strategy nationwide. Davao is their base, the Senate is a strategic high ground, and Sara herself has become the Duterte faction's "offensive forward" at the national level.
Major political changes, potentially profound impacts on the Chinese community and POGO policies
The political consequences of this election go beyond a power shift and may also affect everyday life, especially aspects closely watched by foreigners and the Chinese community:
POGO regulatory policy: The Duterte era's more lenient stance on gambling could lead to a "relaxation period" for POGO regulations. However, this might also be accompanied by high-pressure law enforcement and political maneuvering.
Visa and immigration policies: If Sara gains more power, immigration policies could become more uncertain, and stricter visa scrutiny or a "step back" could not be overlooked.
Security and anti-drug operations: If the Duterte model is "rebooted", large-scale police enforcement and extreme anti-drug measures such as street raids might reappear.
Investment and tax environment: Policy inconsistency has been a long-term issue in the Philippines, and this round of power reshuffling might bring changes to tax collection and licensing systems, posing uncertainties for foreign investments.
Conclusion: New game, old players, the change has already begun
The 2025 midterm elections are nominally a "midterm exam" but are actually a reevaluation of the current government by the citizens, a new distribution of power, and a reconstruction of discourse rights.
The Duterte family's comeback, Sara's rapid turn as an opposition leader, and the Marcos government's retreat—a new political game has fully unfolded. For the Chinese in the Philippines, this is not just news, but also a weathervane.
Visas, POGO, taxes, residency—every policy direction will be rewritten in the new power structure.
