In the global sports betting industry, football and basketball have always dominated due to their wide audience and high-frequency events. However, in recent years, a traditional sport has quietly become a new battleground for betting operators—baseball. From the MLB in the USA to Japan's NPB, to South Korea's KBO, Taiwan's CPBL, and even the winter leagues in Mexico and Venezuela, the baseball betting market is rapidly expanding.
According to industry data estimates, the annual transaction volume of global baseball betting has exceeded one hundred billion US dollars, becoming an important sector for operators to layout.
Why has baseball become a mainstream in betting?
The betting potential of baseball is attributed to its data-intensive, moderate pace, and high frequency of matches:
Naturally suited data models Baseball is one of the earliest sports to systematically record individual data, possessing an extremely rich statistical system: ERA, OPS, WHIP, batting average, defensive rate, pitcher habits, bullpen fatigue, etc. This highly structured data provides ideal soil for AI modeling and odds adjustment.
Dense schedule, numerous betting opportunities An MLB season has 162 regular games, and NPB/KBO also has nearly 140 games, with multiple matches every day. This not only brings frequent betting opportunities but also allows operators to enhance user activity and retention through parlays, in-play betting, and inning-by-inning betting.
Strong cultural identity, high stickiness Especially in regions like the USA, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, baseball is considered a "national sport" with highly localized and loyal fan bases. This means that once tied to local teams, users will bet long-term and continue to follow.
Viewing the global market structure from the MLB in the USA
As the leader of the baseball betting market, MLB events have been fully open and legalized for betting cooperation since 2022, with top platforms such as FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM actively laying out, with MLB-related betting annual transaction volume already exceeding 40 billion US dollars.
MLB itself is also promoting "betting-friendly" measures, such as providing real-time data APIs, collaborating with third-party data companies (like Sportradar, Genius Sports), to provide operators with real-time odds support and betting guidance.
At the same time, "ethical boundaries" are being redrawn: MLB no longer views betting as a "black industry" but is trying to establish transparent mechanisms, such as requiring referee data to be public and upgrading event review mechanisms to avoid a repeat of historical credibility crises like the "Black Sox Scandal".
Japan's NPB, South Korea's KBO: The rise of the Asian market
Compared to the openness and commercialization of the USA, the Asian baseball betting market is more complex:
Japan's NPB: Domestic sports betting is prohibited in Japan, but Japanese baseball is a hot target in the Asian betting "grey market". Operators usually provide services to Japanese players through overseas servers (like in the Philippines, Cambodia) + Japanese customer service + VPN access. It is estimated that the annual output value of Japanese baseball betting grey market exceeds 6 billion US dollars.
South Korea's KBO: The South Korean government allows a certain degree of official sports betting (Sports Toto), but limited to non-online, fixed-amount betting, thus a large amount of KBO betting also shifts to overseas websites. KBO events are fixed in timing, transparent in information, and highly professional, making them one of the first baseball leagues considered by operators when laying out in Asia.
Taiwan's CPBL: Although the quality of CPBL events is slightly lower, due to the relatively lenient gambling laws in Taiwan (public welfare lottery company acting as sports lottery), a legal betting entrance has gradually formed, also attracting operators including Monaco, 188BET to layout.
Operators' entry strategy: Product design and localization are key
Customized odds models Different leagues have different batting preferences, climate variables, and cultural rhythms. Operators need to invest in local data collection and algorithm training, such as focusing on "bullpen stability" for NPB and considering "frequent pitcher changes, high home run rates" for KBO.
In-play and inning-by-inning betting design Baseball is one of the few "natural rhythm" games (non-countdown type), which provides operators with natural opportunities for in-play betting like "which side will score next inning", "whether this at-bat will hit", "single inning score", greatly enriching gameplay.
Content and community integration Especially in Japan and Taiwan, where baseball has a strong community culture, operators need to focus on Japanese content, tactical analysis, pre-game predictions, etc. For example, launching "professional player analysis", "regional community betting" and other methods to enhance user participation.
Compliance challenges and risk management
Despite the huge market potential, baseball betting also faces significant regulatory challenges:
Data manipulation risks: The possibility of a single player influencing game outcomes is high, making it susceptible to manipulation;
Grey market money laundering channels: Especially in Japan and South Korea, some betting websites become "cash exchange" and money laundering tools;
Youth exposure issues: As a family-oriented sport, its betting advertisements may affect minors, operators need to strengthen KYC and self-restriction measures.
To address these issues, more and more betting platforms are introducing AI risk control, betting behavior analysis systems, and collaborating with official leagues to enhance event credibility.
Conclusion: The future of baseball betting lies in "structured + localized + compliant"
The rise of baseball betting is not accidental, combining the natural advantages of high-frequency events, data visibility, and cultural stickiness. In Western markets, legalization, technological platformization, and entertainment have driven baseball betting towards the mainstream; while in Asia, the transition from grey market to legitimacy and operator localization are key breakthroughs.
For betting operators, how they simultaneously advance in product gameplay design, data operation, and compliance control will determine whether they can share in this hundred-billion-dollar blue ocean market.
