At the NCLGS (National Council of Legislators from Gaming States) summer meeting held in Louisville in July, the discussion on the regulation of prediction markets became a focal point. Particularly, the debate over whether sports event contracts should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sparked intense confrontations between legal experts and tribal representatives.
In the discussions, two representatives directly involved in related litigation rarely confronted each other on the same stage. Joshua Sterling, a former CFTC official and lawyer representing the prediction platform Kalshi, and Michael Honig, Deputy General Counsel for the San Manuel Tribe of California, held opposing views. Honig argued that allowing trading of sports contracts in prediction markets infringes on tribal sovereignty and contradicts public interest. Sterling countered by saying that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority by law, and sports contracts are not illegal acts but should be examined on a case-by-case basis according to the "public interest test."
Currently, lawsuits in places like Maryland are still unresolved, with several tribal organizations requesting to submit "amicus curiae" statements. Meanwhile, Kalshi insists that tribal intervention is "neither timely nor helpful for legal clarification."
As the sports prediction market expands, the issue of power boundaries between federal, state, and tribal authorities becomes increasingly prominent. Despite clear disagreements, the discussions maintained a polite atmosphere, and the litigating parties even took a photo together after the meeting. However, as the theme of the conference revealed, the struggle over the ownership of the sports prediction market is far from over.
