According to the latest data, the gambling tax increase policy implemented by the Dutch government this year has backfired, leading to a significant decline in gambling tax revenue in the first half of 2025, resulting in a 200 million euro shortfall in the budget.
As reported by the "Financial Daily," the Dutch Licensed Online Gambling Operators Association (VNLOK) revealed that although the tax rate was raised from 30.1% to 34.2% starting from January 2024, the total gambling revenue (GGR) in the first half of 2025 fell by 25% year-on-year, and the tax revenue was only 83% of the same period last year. This trend has triggered the Ministry of Finance to reassess the effectiveness of the policy.
The Ministry of Finance originally planned to increase tax revenue by 200 million euros annually from 2025 to 2028 through a two-stage tax increase (the second stage to take effect in 2026, with the tax rate rising to 37.8%). However, the actual effect was contrary to expectations.
VNLOK pointed out that the cumulative tax burden, along with advertising bans, deposit limits, and other restrictive measures implemented since last year, are forcing players to turn to unlicensed illegal platforms. Data shows that the legalization rate of gambling channels dropped from 58% in the first half of 2024 to 50% in the second half, with a significant loss of high-value players.
A report by the National Bank of Saudi Arabia further confirmed this trend: since last October, the monthly deposit limit for adult players has been set at 700 euros, and even lower for younger players at 300 euros. Although these measures are intended for protection, they have led to a sharp decrease in operator revenues.
The gambling industry organization VAN Kansspelen criticized in a LinkedIn post that the tax increase not only failed to meet financial targets but also weakened the effectiveness of Dutch gambling regulation, describing it as a "lose-lose policy."
Despite warnings that the tax increase would force legal operators out of the market, the government still pushed forward with the reform. Atlas Research, an industry research institute, had already pointed out last year that the increased tax burden would prompt operators to pass on costs, inadvertently pushing players towards the black market.
As the tax revenue gap continues to widen and regulatory challenges intensify, the Dutch government may have to reconsider the current direction of its gambling policy.
