International investment bank Citigroup has released a new report, delivering an optimistic "forward check" to the Macau gaming industry. The report predicts that by 2026, Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) will grow by 6% year-on-year, reaching 263.5 billion Macau patacas (about 33.3 billion US dollars), driven by the concert economy, increased supply of hotel suites, and sustained spending power of high-end customers. The industry's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is expected to climb by 10%, with a stable profit margin of around 29%. For more detailed global gaming data analysis, you can follow the industry insights on the PASA official website.
Growth Engine: More Than Just Gambling "All-Round Experience"
Citigroup analysts point out that Macau continues to attract mainland affluent tourists seeking an "all-round experience," and the entertainment-oriented tourism trend is strengthening. The drivers of growth are clear: one is the more intensive concert schedule directly boosting related tourism and hotel occupancy; the other is the increase in hotel suite supply, meeting the high-end customers' demand for privacy and luxury experiences, indirectly enhancing their willingness to spend on gambling. Honestly, this combination of "concerts + suites + gambling" is becoming Macau's new magic weapon to attract tourists.
World Cup "Interlude": Summer Revenue May Show Temporary Weakness
Despite the positive outlook for the year, the report also highlights a short-term fluctuation factor—the FIFA World Cup held in June to July 2026. Historical experience shows that major football events can divert gamblers' interest from traditional casinos. Citigroup estimates that just the group matches, totaling 88 games, which is more than double the number of the 2024 European Championship, could cause Macau's GGR in June to drop by 10% year-on-year to 19 billion Macau patacas. Simply put, more people watching the games means fewer people visiting the casinos. However, this impact is expected to be temporary, with growth resuming to normal after the event.
Market Layout: The "Golden Triangle" in Cotai's Share Game
In the specific operator layout, Citigroup predicts that there will be a market share rotation within the Cotai "Golden Triangle." Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, with their advantages in hosting large-scale entertainment events (such as The Londoner Arena and The Venetian Theatre), are expected to maintain their lead in GGR and EBITDA in 2026. Meanwhile, new supply entering the market will intensify competition: Wynn Palace benefits from the opening of the "Chairman's Club" in the first quarter of 2026; MGM China will add 60 new suites in the second half of the year; and Melco's "Ying Shang Hotel" renovation project is also planned to be completed in the third quarter, aiming to enhance competitiveness in the high-end market. These dynamics are worth continuous tracking by industry investors on the PASA official website.
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