The zero-day options mania reached new heights in 2024, sending broader options trading toward an all-time high.
New data from SpotGamma shows the explosive growth in this market. Around half of all trading in Nvidia and Tesla options, some of the most popular trades, has been concentrated in bets expiring within five days, according to the data provider. The share of S&P 500 index options expiring the very same day jumped to a high this year.
The surge in these trades, boom-and-bust bets that expire in just hours or days, is at the heart of a rise in compulsive gambling in financial markets.
Ibn Khaldun was an Arab philosopher, traveler, and historian. In his seminal work, Muqaddimah, Khaldun postulated that a unique common spirit, which he termed asabiyya, made an empire possible. Its loss guaranteed the fall of the empire.
On December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad moved from Damascus to Moscow. He took his family and possibly some chosen insiders. The sudden departure marked the end of 50 years of rule for the Assad family over Syria. It is not clear that the Assad family ever had the asabiyya of Khaldun, but whatever they did have, they lost.
The fall came after just 12 days of fighting; an opposition force led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overwhelmed the forces of Assad. The event was stunning in its suddenness. Syria had been engaged in a civil war since the Arab Spring in 2011, with Assad clearly in control for most of that time. Syria, like many other countries in North Africa and the Middle East, became embroiled in the events of the Arab Spring. In those heady days of regime change, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt fell.
Bashar al-Assad appeared to be on the endangered species list. But he was not. It took 13 years and a new cast of characters for the Assad regime to collapse. Russia may have been one of the most important of those characters. During the Arab Spring, Assad was the only leader with strong outside support; Russia and Iran helped to keep him in power. Thirteen years later, Russia appears to have had a change of mind.
Russian forces did very little to prop up Assad in 2024. The reasons are unclear, but Russia is already negotiating with the rebels to maintain its presence in Syria. As there was in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisa in 2011, there is lots of optimism in Syria in the wake of the fall of Assad. To justify that optimism, Syria will have to form a government that is inclusive, somewhat democratic, and without secret agendas, police, and prisons. Syria is a very old country and very complex. It has more forces, parties, ethnic groups, and others with a vested interest in the government than even Lebanon.
During the Arab Spring, I wrote a regular blog on the Middle East using local sources. There are numerous English-language news outlets in the Middle East, a legacy of the British Empire and European colonialism. Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Palestine, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran publish news in English. In addition, three pan-Arab publications have English versions of the news. They each have a bias, but reading all of them can give one a good sense of the news. It takes several hours a day, but during the Arab Spring, it was worth the effort. In the end, I gave up on the blog because of Syria. It was too complicated for me to make any sense of the situation. With the recent events in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, it seemed like time to once again engage.
Besides the optimism of the people of Syria, others are looking for a new Syria. Indeed, some are looking for a new Middle East. This week, representatives from Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar met and called for an inclusive peaceful government in Syria. Add to that list the EU countries, the United States, Canada, and Turkey. Even Iran and Russia are backpeddling on previous positions and offering best wishes. Critics are saying those are just empty words. The same old political postures and positions still exist. The only change is a slight altering of the rhetoric. That may be true, but at the same time, there is an opportunity across the region for a new paradigm.
It is in the interest of nearly every country in the region, if not the world, to have a peaceful and prosperous Syria and Middle East. And a window of opportunity appears to be opening. For years, the politics of Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria have been driven by the Axis of Resistance. It is/was an anti-Israeli coalition funded by Iran, but executed by its surrogates Hezbollah, Hamas, the Assad regime, and Houthis. The focus of the axis has been the destruction of Israel, not the building of Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, or Gaza. That is not to excuse Israel or Israeli policy. Israel bares its share of the responsibility for the destruction and it will have to adjust its attitudes and policies as the other countries and parties must do.
In wake of the destruction resulting from the recent wars, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria are badly in need of reconstruction. Billions and billions of dollars are needed for investment in infrastructure. Qatar, Jordan, Saudia Arbia, and Turkey have made tentative offers. The commander of the new Syrian administration, Ahamd al-Sharaa, said in an interview that Saudi Arabia had a “bold development vision” for Syria. That is what the region needs. It needs the Arab states, the EU, the United States, and others to step to the plate with money, technology, expertise, and creativity and without a hidden agenda. It might not be asabiyya, but it could be a spirit of peace and goodwill creating a new, peaceful, prosperous Middle East.
