In the past year, the Philippines has indeed experienced tumultuous times. Domestically, there have been political struggles and family battles; internationally, the country has been clinging to powerful allies and confronting major powers. Above all, the government's one-size-fits-all policies disregard the hardships of the people; below, the citizens can barely feed themselves while constantly worrying about natural disasters!
The political and economic situation in the Philippines is complex and ever-changing, especially with the policy issued at the end of July concerning Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO), which has had significant impacts on both the country and its neighbors.
Recently, the internal contradictions within the government have intensified, leading to public doubts about whether the POGO policy can be sustained or adjusted.
Part One: Internal Conflicts in the Philippines and the Future of POGO Policy
As 2024 draws to a close, the Philippine government's POGO ban is facing its final "endgame." Despite the ban requiring the closure of all online gaming operators, some POGO businesses and related personnel still risk "going rogue" and even relocating to third countries to maintain operations, attempting to evade government surveillance through various means.
However, according to PAOCC (Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Commission) Executive Director Cruz, they have listed some small POGO targets for raids and have planned raids on POGOs in early 2025, aiming to crack down on remaining small-scale online gambling activities.
Yet, the effective implementation of this policy still faces considerable resistance.
On one hand, the government's strict ban aims to regulate the chaotic gambling industry to ensure social order and healthy economic development; on the other hand, the ban has also exacerbated the contraction of industries such as the Philippine real estate market.
According to data from the Central Bank of the Philippines, real estate prices in the Philippines have fallen for the first time since the second quarter of 2021, especially with significant drops in prices of duplexes and apartments.
This change is clearly related to the implementation of the POGO policy. The withdrawal of numerous POGO businesses and the departure of foreign employees have impacted the real estate industry in many areas, especially in POGO-concentrated areas like Makati and Pasay.
With the shrinking real estate market, the Philippine economy is also under downward pressure. Particularly in areas like Santa Ana that rely on a single industry, the "one-size-fits-all" measures of the POGO policy undoubtedly exacerbate local economic difficulties and widen the gap between regions.
How to properly implement the POGO ban, avoid further economic losses, adjust relevant policies appropriately, and prevent more severe livelihood issues has become a challenging problem for the Philippine government!
Part Two: The Power Struggle between Old Duterte and Little Marcos, Influencing the Direction of POGO Policy?
In the second half of 2024, with the implementation of the POGO ban, internal political struggles in the Philippines have become increasingly intense.
The sudden resignation of Vice President Sara Duterte (Sara) has led to doubts about the once-strong alliance between two major families! Her absence from the President's State of the Nation Address (SONA) and her appointment as the "designated survivor" have sparked continuous speculation, seen as a sign of the alliance's breakdown. Later, Sara was relentlessly pursued by the House over secret funds, with Little Marcos's covert support likely involved.
While Sara was struggling, her father, Old Duterte, was once again questioned by the Quadrilateral Committee for his drug war, his tough stance very much in line with his style, but it also made Sara sigh in frustration! However, his consistent tough stance and his endurance of a 13-hour session without showing signs of fatigue have won him absolute trust from supporters, even leading to expectations that he might run in the 2028 presidential election.
Later, considering Old Duterte's political influence, he was not subjected to much "attack." However, Sara faced the risk of impeachment due to issues involving secret funds. Civil groups and religious leaders jointly filed an impeachment complaint against her, accusing her of abuse of power and involvement in serious crimes.
Eventually, her father could not remain silent, publicly stating he would defend his daughter and counterattack politically during this process. (PS: Some say Sara's actions were an attempt to divert public attention by using family relationships and relying on her father's reputation to exonerate herself.)
Once, in 2022, Little Marcos and Sara won the election together, but now their relationship has gradually tensed, with actions like digging up ancestral graves and making death threats, bringing the two major families to an openly confrontational stance.
According to recent polls, Marcos's support rate has significantly declined, especially in the fourth quarter of 2024, with his net trust rating dropping from 33% to 29%. At the same time, Vice President Sara Duterte's support rate has also declined.
As the political battle between the two major forces intensifies, will the implementation of the POGO policy be affected? To consolidate his support rate, will the Marcos government adjust policies mid-term to respond to the changing political situation?
Especially in the current context where the Philippine economy is under pressure, is it possible that there will be a "loosening" or "flexibility" in the POGO policy to alleviate economic pressure and promote domestic economic recovery?
The political coordination between Sara Duterte and her father, especially regarding the layout for the future 2028 presidential election, makes the future of the POGO policy full of uncertainties.
As the daughter of a former president, Sara's political future and her stance on the POGO policy are closely related. If she can occupy a more advantageous political position, will she promote a reevaluation of the POGO policy?
It's important to note that Old Duterte is a pragmatist; according to his style, he would not opt for a one-size-fits-all approach due to the negative impacts of POGO, but would likely adopt more flexible measures to serve the Philippine economy!
Part Three: Legal Disputes Among Key Figures, Does This Indicate a Possible Revival of POGO?
In addition to the internal struggles of the two major families adding uncertainty to POGO, legal disputes involving related individuals have also become a focal point.
Especially for Yang Jianxin and Guo Huaping, on December 4th at the beginning of the month, after the 13th hearing, the House Quadrilateral Committee decided to lift the contempt of court order against the dismissed Bamban, Tarlac Province Mayor Alice Guo or Guo Huaping, Chinese businessman Tony Yang or Yang Jianxin, and Lucky South 99 representative Cassandra Ong, and ordered the release of these three suspects.
In response, a senator stated that although Yang Jianxin applied for bail due to health issues, considering his alleged use of forged Philippine identities for illegal benefits, he should not be released and investigations into his money laundering activities should be accelerated.
But with the release order issued, a strong opposition from a congressman can hardly make a splash.
Perhaps after a year and a half, when everyone has almost forgotten about these two individuals, they might re-enter politics and business as if nothing had happened!
From exposing connections with POGO to arrest, trial, and release, this series of actions seems to be a way of making a big deal small and a small deal nothing, which not only reveals the complexity of the Philippine government's crackdown on POGO but also raises doubts about whether the government might compromise individual interests in policy enforcement.
If key figures like Yang Jianxin and Guo Huaping can be released, does that mean POGO might be revived in the future? Will the current policy be "flexibilized" or "diluted"?
Finally, the Philippine government currently faces dual challenges of economy and politics. The power struggle between Old Duterte and Little Marcos, the ongoing cases of key figures like Yang Jianxin, could deeply influence the direction of the POGO policy.
The many phenomena make us wonder, although the remaining POGO forces are still being pursued by the government, whether there will be changes in the overall gambling policy remains an unknown!
No one can say for sure whether today's series of events is just like the old Duterte's licensing scheme after the 2016 major cleanup.
Perhaps with the new start in 2025, Philippine online gambling might welcome new policy changes!
