Casinos in the United States’s regional markets will “remain competitive and choppy.” Las Vegas, likewise, is a mixed bag for major operators. Macau, however, looks to return to a subdued version of earlier growth, then achieve pre-COVID results in 2026.
Those were some of the forward-looking takes of Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz in a January 3 investor note. The complexity of his outlook was evident in his opening statement: “Operating expectations for land-based casinos should remain mostly unchanged, but we believe there is potential for considerable change in ’25, in either leadership, ownership, or strategic forms.”
Wynn Resorts, Penn Entertainment, Golden Entertainment, and Monarch Casinos & Resorts were cited as potential catalysts.
Las Vegas, Katz opined, is caught between limited supply and potent demand over the next two years. The two biggest operators, MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment, were described as needing to improve execution, although both are “too inexpensive to ignore” as stock pickups and seen as improving their digital performance.
Las Vegas Strip rival Wynn was lauded for superb execution and undervalued assets, both stateside and overseas. Boyd Gaming was picked to improve on its 2024 performance, but Katz was more restrained regarding Station Casinos, citing its capital commitments. He noted that Golden is trying to become “more strategically dynamic” than last year.
Overall, Katz felt Las Vegas will see “a strong event calendar and an improving group and convention business, which is expected to continue accelerating in 2025.”
A Strip devoid of Tropicana Las Vegas and The Mirage, with no new resorts coming on line, will work in favor of Caesars and MGM. Revenues, however, will be either flat or grow minimally over the next two years.
The economic makeup of the Las Vegas Valley is expected to work on behalf of locals casinos. “The older demographic in Nevada could provide a catalyst for the casino industry. … [Station] should have the steepest growth curve among operators given its existing assets and the location of its land holdings, but for the construction disruption in its portfolio in 2025, and potentially 2026.” Golden’s mix of on- and off-Strip assets was also seen as a bastion of strength.
Constrained growth was perceived regionally. Rising competition and economic unease were cited as the motivators. Churchill Downs and Boyd were seen as likeliest to grow, while a series of late-2025 property openings for Penn was also expected to drive results.
Marketing discipline seen in the wake of COVID, Katz wrote, would be challenged by a spate of new casino openings, increasing competition in the Chicago, Indiana, Omaha, and Shreveport/Bossier City. Growth itself was seen as limited, save in Virginia, which is anticipating two new slot parlors (owned by Churchill Downs) and a casino (Boyd).
Katz zeroed in on four gaming stocks in particular—Las Vegas Sands, Churchill Downs, Boyd, and Penn. He predicted the former would accelerate stock repurchases, while focusing on major capex projects in Singapore and Macau.
Churchill Downs was described as growing its cash flow, as it reaps the benefits of a recent expansion regimen.
Boyd was forecast to enjoy easier year-over-year comparisons in 2025. Boyd’s Norfolk, Virginia, casino project was seen as another growth opportunity. Katz thought the venerable company would be the most aggressive share repurchaser among the gaming group and lauded its ownership position within FanDuel, worth $7 of Boyd’s share value.
Penn, Katz added, could feel positive effects from recent shareholder activism, refocusing on its terrestrial casinos and refining a controversial online strategy.
Jefferies upgraded two casino stocks (Boyd and Sands) from Hold to Buy and downgraded Station from Buy to Hold. Price targets went up from $73 per share to $92 for Boyd and from $60 to $69 for Sands. Station slipped from $64 a share to $51.
Unchanged were ratings on Churchill Downs, Caesars, and MGM (all Buy). Hold remained the order of the day for Bally’s Corp., Monarch, Penn, and Wynn.
Katz lowered his price targets on Caesars (from $52 per share to $43 apiece), MGM (from $52 to $50), and Wynn (from $109 to $105). He raised the targets for Golden (from $31 to $32), Monarch (from $72 up to $88), and Penn (from $21 to $22). Churchill Downs’s price target stayed the same at $172. Bally’s price goal also stood still, at a tenth of that value.
Macau’s casinos were perceived to be beneficiaries of China’s economic-stimulus program, eventually recapturing 2019 (pre-pandemic) heights in 2026. Near-term growth, however, would likely slow from a recent 22.5 percent to 13.3 percent this year and five percent next year.
New suite product was seen as helpful to Las Vegas Sands, as was Sands’s mass-market orientation, and the company was predicted to take Macanese market share from Wynn. A Beijing-driven emphasis on non-gambling amenities, however, might not be working out as planned: Non-casino revenue went from $411 million in 2019 to $378 million last year, per Katz’s numbers.
