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In-depth Analysis: How Much Intrigue Lies Behind Thailand's Power Cut to Myanmar?

PASA Original
PASA Original
·Mars

After a long tug-of-war, Thailand finally announced a "complete power cut" to the Myanmar park.

Uninformed bystanders might think it makes sense, something happened with Wang Xing, China sent people to urge, and then Thailand swiftly cut off the power.

In fact, those of us who have been closely following Thai news know that there has been a lot of hesitation and wrangling involved.

Thailand had previously cut off power to Myawaddy once, but exactly how it was cut off has always been a mystery.

In June last year, after the basic annihilation of the northern Myanmar telecom fraud park, a large number of telecom fraud personnel began to move to Myawaddy, and the situation became increasingly serious, so the Thai government decided to "partially cut off" power to Myawaddy.

However, after the power cut, images sent back from the Myanmar side showed that several main parks and surrounding urban areas in Myawaddy still had power supply.

After the Wang Xing case occurred, the Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao once sent reporters to investigate and found that the opposite bank was still "brightly lit," showing no signs of power outage.

On one hand, the Thai side's power supply to Myawaddy was briefly interrupted and then quietly restored in part; on the other hand, the Myanmar park responded by bringing in a batch of generators for self-power generation, and some wealthy parks even purchased Starlink systems for independent networking.

Which factor is dominant is hard to say, but the end result is that the first round of power cuts in Myawaddy was in vain.

After the Wang Xing case, the Thai government once again faced pressure to cut off power to Myanmar.

Not only did the Chinese government send people to urge, but the Thai opposition also took the opportunity to criticize, publicly questioning why the government did not cut off power, to which the Thai government responded, "The matter of cutting off power is significant, we cannot decide," and then said, "In fact, we have already cut off power," making it very awkward.

But at this point, cutting off power to Myanmar had become a "political correctness," and no one dared to defy public opinion.

Thus, from the end of January to early February, Thailand staged a bizarre Tai Chi football performance.

The players were two major Thai ministers: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Anutin, and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Prayut.

It was like a battle between the Minister of Personnel and the Minister of War, both deputy prime ministers, the most powerful after Prayut.

The local power authority, which supplies power to Myanmar, is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Interior.

Then Minister of Interior Anutin said: We were ready to cut off power, but we need instructions from the National Security Council, you issue a document, and we will cut off power.

The head of the National Security Council, Minister of Defense Prayut, said, no need for our approval, your Ministry of Interior is also a security department, just handle it yourself, just cut off the power.

The Ministry of Interior refused: We need a reason to cut off power, you open a certificate from the National Security Council stating "power supply to Myanmar endangers national security," and we will execute it.

National Security Council: It has always been your Ministry of Interior supplying power, you know better than anyone what the situation is on the other side, where do we go to check? You handle this matter yourself...

Both sides said that power must be cut off, and whoever does not cut off power is a fool.

But when it came to actually implementing it, both sides pushed and shoved, like a pair of wrangling police stations and street offices—one side needed to issue a certificate, while the other said, "You issue this certificate yourself."

Why the wrangling? Because no one really wanted to handle this matter.

Thailand has been supplying power to Myanmar since 1992, naturally receiving benefits from the Myanmar side, and naturally did not want to cut off this deal for no reason;

And the military, represented by the Ministry of Defense, as well as Prayut's backing of the Palang Pracharath Party, has always been relatively friendly to the Myanmar government, unwilling to have unpleasant dealings with the Myanmar military and pro-military local armed forces.

Moreover, the Minister of Interior is from the Bhumjaithai Party, and the Minister of Defense is from the Palang Pracharath Party. Although these two parties are nominally allies, their target voters highly overlap, and they compete for votes during elections, making them superficially united but actually divided.

A few days ago, during the local provincial governor elections in Thailand, Thaksin publicly called on the public to "only vote for the Palang Pracharath Party," and Anutin publicly expressed dissatisfaction, sarcastically criticizing Thaksin in the media for trying to dominate.

Originally, the two parties did not get along well, and this time they created a thankless "power cut issue," naturally leading to internal consumption.

The power bureau directly slacked off, the Ministry of Defense firmly shifted the blame, and thus dragged on until February 2025.

On February 4, the plot took a sudden turn.

The day before, the Palang Pracharath Party's Minister of Defense, who had been verbally sparring with the Minister of Interior, suddenly changed his tune, ordered a power cut to Myanmar, and issued a harsh statement, "Whoever dares to act against this order, get out."

And Prime Minister Prayut, also breaking his long silence, likewise announced a power cut to Myanmar.

Fundamentally, this was naturally the master of the Palang Pracharath Party, Thaksin, taking action, going with the flow, taking advantage of the situation—You Anutin asked us to issue a certificate, right? Well, here's the certificate: Cutting off power to Myanmar is related to national security, please have the Ministry of Interior and the power bureau handle it immediately!

Thaksin still knows what's important; cutting off power to Myanmar is an urgent matter.

Moreover, his daughter Yingluck was going to visit China on February 5 to talk business, and she couldn't go empty-handed; she had to bring the notice of power cut to Myawaddy as a meeting gift.

Thus, we see today's situation: the Thai government suddenly made a 180-degree turn, decisively cutting off Myanmar's power—not just Myawaddy, but also some cities in the Golden Triangle areas of Wa State and Shan State.

So, what's next?

Will cutting off power to Myanmar work?

It may not be a definitive solution, but it is still somewhat useful.

Under internal and external pressures, China's urging, social supervision, and the opposition's echo, the Thai government has made up its mind to completely sever ties with Myanmar and sincerely combat Myanmar's telecom fraud.

Although all the parks in Myawaddy have generators, these are naturally not as good as power supply, being high-cost, unstable, and easy to detect. Once power is cut off for a long time, it is a significant blow and psychological shock to the parks.

Originally, the gray industry bosses chose Myawaddy because it is close to Thailand, has flat terrain, and has electricity, internet, and roads, making it convenient to transport people and goods.

If you cut off power and internet, Myawaddy might be able to manage with engines for a while, but it's ultimately unsustainable, no different from going to a remote mountain ravine where no birds shit.

Just cutting off power may not completely cure telecom fraud.

But making Myawaddy, this telecom fraud paradise, gradually fade and dissolve, forcing the fraudsters to move their nests, is also worth the effort.

Currently, the Myawaddy telecom fraud gangs have already started packing up and moving their personnel and materials to other places in Myanmar—even to Cambodia.

The mobile phones and computers recently intercepted by the Thai police, as well as the previously rare "Myawaddy fleeing personnel," all indicate that Myawaddy has begun to collapse.

In short, the Thai government is currently sincerely cooperating with China to counter telecom fraud, but its complex internal political factions and tangled interests will cause some issues to arise unexpectedly, making good things difficult.

In the future, we hope that the Thai government can wholeheartedly and unreservedly cooperate with China to dismantle the parks in Myawaddy as soon as possible.

After all, with things having reached this point, they can no longer be fooled.

For their own good and for everyone's good, we hope Thailand will show greater determination and take more measures to sweep those trash away from Thailand's side, together with China.

缅甸
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泰国
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#政策分析#其他#产业#泰国断电AI反电诈AI政治AI电诈园区AI断电

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PASA Original
PASA Original
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Myawaddy Garden District "lights out"! Thailand cuts off power supply, strikes against northern Myanmar telecom fraud network.

Myawaddy Garden District "lights out"! Thailand cuts off power supply, strikes against northern Myanmar telecom fraud network.

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