Playing slot machines inevitably raises the question: is it better to design slot machines with natural or unnatural drawing methods? This article will discuss the differences between these two types of drawing methods.
Natural Probability
Natural probability drawing refers to each game having the same expected value and distribution. Slot machines with natural probabilities have a set payout table, reel table, free game rules, etc., and each game with the same bet will determine the outcome of the game based on the same probability randomly.
In licensed casinos and online gambling sites, slot machines definitely belong to natural probabilities, as they must comply with regulations and be verified by third parties.
Third-party verification: Licensed casinos must comply with relevant regulations to obtain a license, so all slot machines must be inspected by third-party organizations, such as the famous "GLI", to ensure the fairness and correctness of the games and comply with local government regulations. Therefore, verified slot machines definitely belong to natural probabilities.
Without third-party verification: Some slot machines, although not verified, are essentially designed with natural probabilities. The reason for not being verified may be that the target platform and market do not require a license. However, because they are not verified by third parties, they may incorporate some rules or performance methods not allowed by regulations.
Unnatural Probability
The so-called unnatural probability drawing means that the expected value of each game changes due to some factors. Unnatural probability slot machines may also have a set payout table, reel table, free game rules, etc., but there are additional factors that affect the final outcome of the drawing, and these additional factors are usually the accumulated wins and losses of the machine or the wins and losses of the previous few games.
In places where legal casinos cannot be established, such as Taiwan, all casinos are illegal, so there is no need for third-party verification, so slot machines may be of unnatural probability. Unnatural probability slot machines can be divided into:
Reel type: Common in some old Taiwanese gaming companies' slot machines, characterized by controlling the part of winning big prizes with the concept of a reservoir, meaning the chips lost by players accumulate, and only when they reach a certain value is there a chance to win big prizes. Before that, no matter how you play, there is no chance to win big prizes. Even in virtual online slot machines, the concept of virtual machine numbers is added, with each virtual machine's reservoir accumulating separately, encouraging players to "hoard machines" and "grab machines" to increase the game's playability and fun. Additionally, some conditions may be added to force the release of some small prizes to prevent players from feeling unhappy due to bad luck in the short term.
Example 1: Each free game will at least release a prize of 10 times the bet.
Example 2: If a player does not win for 5 consecutive games, the next game forces a win.
Non-reel type: Common in mobile slot games produced in mainland China in recent years, simply copying the visible rules and graphics, and using various imaginative ways to realize the unseen probability designs. The logic behind the game does not have a so-called reel table, relying on pre-planned scripts or software-written logic to produce the desired results, so the experience of playing this type of slot machine is quite different from that of reel-type slot machines. However, it is believed that slot machines made in this way are becoming less common.
Advantages and Disadvantages
Overall, from the perspective of probability design, natural probability has the following:
Advantages:
Can be verified by third parties, and only such slot machines are placed in licensed casinos and online gambling sites.
Has precise RTP theoretical values, and through statistical methods, the theoretical fluctuation range can also be obtained. When online operational data is abnormal, it is easier to determine whether it is within the normal fluctuation range. If there is a real problem, it is easy to identify the issue point with Excel calculation data for comparison.
Adjusting RTP and experience can be done simultaneously, with many useful experience target data available on Excel. When a game is successful, the data of that game can be used as a template for adjusting the experience of new works.
Program development is much easier, only needing to write logic and set values according to the documents provided by the probability engineer, and verify them with the results calculated by the probability engineer, without writing a bunch of complex and bug-prone control conditions in the game logic.
Disadvantages:
Because traditional slot machine manufacturers are located in Europe, America, and Australia, it is not easy to find good probability engineer talent in Asia.
When encountering complex and difficult rules, only senior probability engineers may be able to calculate them.
It is not easy to adjust good probability experiences naturally.
Unnatural Probability Reel Type
Advantages:
Players in specific regions have a high affinity and stickiness for this type of slot machine.
Even if the probability engineer's calculation ability is insufficient, it is still easy to realize various high-difficulty game rules.
Even if there are bugs in the game logic, since there is reservoir control, there is usually no need to worry about the RTP exceeding 100.
Disadvantages:
The backend is prone to unexpected bugs due to the addition of a bunch of complex control conditions.
The probability experience and fluctuation compared to the natural probability method are less diverse.
Unnatural Probability Non-Reel Type
Advantages:
Does not necessarily require a probability engineer.
Rules can be designed ignoring the inherent limitations of probability, so it is also possible to design some games with good experiences that natural probability cannot calculate.
Disadvantages:
The planning of such games often designs rules without considering probability, possibly designing games that look very feature-rich and exciting but actually have a very poor experience.
The backend is prone to hidden bugs, but because there is no Excel for comparison verification like natural probability, and the theoretical value RTP is not known, plus the usual large fluctuations in RTP, it is difficult to determine whether exceeding 100 RTP is within the normal fluctuation range.
