Recently, the Thai government has taken serious actions against several towns on the Myanmar border notorious for telecom fraud! They have decisively cut off electricity, internet, and fuel, with a clear goal—to stop the scamming groups from continuing their crimes. These places include Myawaddy, Mae Sot, and others, which are hotspots for telecom fraud.
It must be said, Thailand's move is indeed harsh, directly crippling the local infrastructure, making medical facilities inoperable, causing local oil prices to skyrocket, and making normal life problematic.
Moreover, from the overnight visit to China by Petong Tan and the signing of agreements, including requests for pandas, it is evident that Thailand's actions are strongly supported by China. After all, in recent years, the scamming groups in Southeast Asia have been rampant, with many victims being Chinese. Thailand's actions are actually putting pressure on the Myanmar government, forcing it to take action.
But Myanmar's attitude is a bit complicated. Why? Because the distribution of political forces in Myanmar is too complex, and the domestic economic situation is a mess.
Let's see Myanmar's reaction: Cooperation or resistance?
Thailand's decisive action to cut off electricity has put Myanmar in a passive position. Initially, the Myanmar government did not respond directly but handled it low-key, restoring electricity soon after the cut-off. However, dealing with the internet and fuel cut-offs has been more challenging.
Although Myanmar claims that the border has not been completely closed, the reality is that without electricity and internet, many government operations are affected: for example, the immigration department cannot process documents; cross-border travel from Mae Sot to Chiang Rai in Thailand has been suspended since February 5, and passport holders are prohibited from crossing; officials at the Mae Sot Friendship Bridge refuse entry to Thailand for passport holders.
However, under pressure, Myanmar has taken some actions, such as raiding several telecom fraud dens, arresting many suspects, including Chinese, Vietnamese, and locals, and seizing a bunch of scamming equipment, such as Starlink, computers, and communication tools. This shows that the Myanmar government is not entirely indifferent but has to do something to appease Thailand and China.
How does Myanmar internally view telecom fraud and the Chinese?
Honestly, the telecom fraud industry in Myanmar is entangled with local armed groups, gangs, and even some military government officials, making it difficult to eradicate completely.
In the Myanmar region, there are over 20 active ethnic armed organizations, such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA), the Arakan Army (AA), the Shan State Army (SSA-S/SSA-N), and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). These armed forces control most of Myanmar's border areas and have been in long-term conflict with the military government.
Inside the industrial parks, there are so-called Hunan gangs, Hong Kong gangs, Fujian gangs, and other forces involved.
Ordinary people are also deeply affected, especially those deceived into working in telecom fraud parks, who not only do not receive wages but sometimes are also restricted in their freedom. On the other hand, some border areas' economies are heavily dependent on the telecom fraud industry, with many people earning their living from it.
There are many people in the telecom fraud parks, but there are even more people around who rely on these parks for business and livelihood!
If completely eradicated, it might lead to greater social problems, so the Myanmar government often opts for "selective strikes"—eliminating some while preserving others.
As for those Chinese working in the telecom fraud parks, the situation is also complex. Myanmar has indeed arrested some Chinese nationals involved in scams, giving an explanation to the Chinese government.
On the 10th, the Myanmar government directly bombarded and destroyed several network crime dens controlled by the Myanmar Karen Border Guard Force (BGF)! They seized 260 mobile phones, 120 computers, 7 Starlink Wi-Fi devices, 5 gaming consoles, generators, and 3 vehicles, among other items. They also expelled 55,000 members of the scamming groups, including 51,000 Chinese citizens.
But the problem is, these people are just the tip of the iceberg. The real big bosses behind them, many of whom are related to local forces in Myanmar, whether the Myanmar government dares to touch them, remains an unknown.
Will Myanmar follow Thailand's lead and directly cut off electricity and internet? It's unlikely!
There are several reasons:
The relationship between the military government and local armed groups is too complex! The Myanmar government does not fully control the country, and many scamming parks are controlled by local armed or semi-independent forces, which the military government may not be able to easily intervene in.
Economically, Myanmar's economy is already poor, and the military government's control over foreign exchange and capital flows is very strict. The telecom fraud industry, to some extent, brings in a lot of cash flow. If completely cut off, it might affect some interest groups, even affecting the military government's own income.
Currently, the Myanmar military government is busy dealing with domestic anti-government armed forces, and several recent intense conflicts have left them in a difficult situation. In this context, they may be more focused on stabilizing the situation rather than fully cracking down on telecom fraud groups.
So, although China hopes it will crack down on telecom fraud, the Myanmar military government prefers to use "limited strikes" to get by, rather than a clean sweep like Thailand.
You want me to crack down? Fine, I did, okay? Can you still order me around?
Will Myanmar's telecom fraud be completely eradicated in the future? The answer is obvious!
In the short term, the Myanmar government is unlikely to completely eradicate the telecom fraud groups, but will continue to "strike some, preserve some." However, as countries like Thailand and Cambodia continue to strengthen their crackdowns, the scamming groups may gradually move to more remote areas of Myanmar or even expand to other Southeast Asian countries.
Additionally, Myanmar's anti-government armed forces are growing stronger, and they are starting to crack down on telecom fraud parks, hoping to gain international support. If the political situation in Myanmar changes, the future of the telecom fraud industry may face a major turning point. But until then, this issue will likely continue to plague Southeast Asia and even affect a broader scope!
