From February 5, 2025, Thailand began to cut off electricity, fuel, and network supplies to Myanmar's Karen State, located on the Thai-Myanmar border, instantly paralyzing the "scam paradise" of Myawaddy.
Small scam companies quickly packed up and fled, while the business volume of large criminal gangs sharply decreased. Behind all this, the commander of the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF), Su Chi Du, anxiously sat in the headquarters, facing the reality that his carefully built "scam empire" was rapidly collapsing.
Su Chi Du's Dilemma
This man, once called "the smartest warlord in northern Myanmar" by Nikkei Asia, finally realized that the huge scam industry he established under the joint crackdown by China, Myanmar, and Thailand was rapidly disintegrating.
To understand Su Chi Du's dilemma, one must first understand the "bloody ledger" of the Karen Border Guard Force.
According to data from "Myanmar Frontline" in 2024, the annual cross-border trade volume in the BGF-controlled area exceeded 2 billion US dollars, with the scam industry contributing over 35%. A large amount of scam money was laundered through the Thai banking system, with more than 120 million US dollars in BGF-related accounts frozen by the Thai Anti-Money Laundering Office in 2024 alone.
However, the situation fundamentally changed in 2025. With the approval of the second phase of the China-Thailand Railway and the heated discussion triggered by the news of Chinese actor Wang Xing being deceived to Myawaddy, the game among the three countries no longer tolerated any warlords.
Tri-nation Clampdown: Su Chi Du's Dilemma
A. China's Strong Crackdown:
In 2024, China's Ministry of Public Security launched the "Great Wall Operation," destroying 18 scam parks across borders; the frequency of joint patrols on the Mekong River among China, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand increased to twice a month; Key data: China's investment in Myanmar decreased by 42% year-on-year in 2024 (according to data from the Myanmar Ministry of Commerce).
B. Thailand's Change of Attitude:
On the eve of Prime Minister Petongtan's visit to China, Thailand adopted measures of "cutting off electricity, internet, and fuel" at the Myanmar-Thailand border; Thailand's "scam personnel transfer plan" transferred 500 people daily, essentially a gradual weakening; the military stated: "As long as Su Chi Du dares to cross the border, he will be immediately handcuffed" (Thai Deputy Prime Minister Putan).
C. Myanmar Government's Change of Stance:
In January 2025, the Myanmar military withdrew 12 liaison officers stationed with the BGF; Min Aung Hlaing was secretly reported to have met with representatives of the Karen National Union (KNU); Strategic intent emerged: through the pressure from China and Thailand, the Myanmar government army prepared to take over Myawaddy by cleaning up local armed forces that did not follow commands.
Su Chi Du's Choices: Surrender, Resist, or Flee?
Facing encirclement on three sides, Su Chi Du's choices are rapidly becoming limited:
Option A: Raise the white flag for forgiveness (Success Rate ★★☆)
Advantage: The Thai military hinted "proactive transfer of scam leaders could negotiate terms";
Disadvantage: China's position is firm, demanding accountability for "the chief culprit," with the Nuokang case still vivid.
Option B: Armed resistance to the end (Success Rate ★☆☆)
Trump card: About 10,000 elite private soldiers and stockpiled munitions;
Dilemma: With the interruption of Thai-Myanmar trade, BGF has lost 60% of its supplies, with combined forces of Thailand and China to the east, other Karen armed groups to the north, and the Myanmar government army ready to clean up the battlefield to the south.
Option C: Escape by shedding the mortal coil (Success Rate ★★☆)
Escape route: Su Chi Du was reported to have purchased a safety house worth 8 million US dollars in Dubai;
Risk: An Interpol red notice is in the drafting stage, and if issued, the only escape route might be China, with other places difficult to escape.
The Fate of Karen Warriors
In 1996, when drug lord Kun Sa surrendered to the Myanmar military government, he left a saying: "We Karen people are always waiting for an opportunity."
30 years later, Su Chi Du stood in the command center in Myawaddy, facing the fluttering BGF flag, perhaps only the legendary Karen warriors could find a way out at the last moment?
The answer might be revealed at dawn on February 13, 2025—if the first batch of 500 scam personnel is indeed escorted to Thailand as planned, this "ten thousand person transfer" not only signifies the collapse of the criminal empire but also marks: in the chess game of great power rivalry, the era of local warlords' opportunism has indeed ended.
The End of Su Chi Du
For Su Chi Du, the greatest sorrow now is: under the looming Chinese anti-scam sword, Thailand's encirclement, and the Myanmar military government's indifferent observation, he has lost any chance of "losing half"—after all, in this tri-nation contest along the Mekong, the poker table is no longer decided by a minor warlord.
