J.P. Morgan increased its December 2025 price target of Wynn Resorts stock to $117 after the operator reported stronger than anticipated fourth-quarter results.
The stock, which closed at $90.76 on Friday, got praised by the Wall Street firm, which noted that property-level EBITDAR was 11% higher than their expectations “with meaningful upside in Las Vegas,” where EBITDAR was 20% above their estimates. In Macau, Wynn’s EBITDAR was 7% above J.P. Morgan’s estimate.
In Las Vegas, Wynn reported healthy demand in the fourth quarter, with table drop nearly flat, slot handle up 13%, and healthy non-gaming demand against a tough inaugural F1 comparison, according to analyst Joseph Greff. He added that F1-related EBITDA was $20 million below the prior year, largely driven by lower revenue per room, though both years were 50% above the same weekend in prior years.
January demand remained strong with table drop, slot handle, room rates, and food and beverage up year-over-year and Wynn predicted strong volume metrics in the first quarter, excluding the $25 million EBITDAR headwind from last year’s Super Bowl.
In Boston, demand has been healthy through January, led by growth in slot handle and stable non-gaming revenue against tougher comparisons, Greff said.
In Macau, January enjoyed healthy mass table drop, strong direct VIP turnover, and full occupancy. For Chinese New Year, Wynn like other Macau operators this earnings season “noted a prolonged period of visitation and less concentration on specific days with healthy volumes, drop and turnover in line with the prior-year period. Hold was choppy and slot handle up year-over-year for the 14-day period starting January 29 and including the days after the holiday period, Greff said.
For 2025, J.P. Morgan raised its property-level EBITDAR to $2.26 billion from $2.25 billion, driven by its upward revision in Las Vegas EBITDAR to $875 million from $846 million. That offsets its modest downward revision in Macau.
For 2026, J.P. Morgan forecast that total property-level EBITDAR will grow 2% year-over-year, including 3% year-over-year growth.
“We maintain our overweight rating and see an undemanding valuation that takes into account ho-hum expectations in Las Vegas and some retrenchment in Macau sentiment more recently,” Greff said. “We also see an underappreciated development growth pipeline in Wynn Al Marjan, which is not priced into the shares at current levels.”
