President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. arrested the 80-year-old former President Duterte and handed him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC), thinking it would be a quick victory to cut off his rival's base, but instead, he stirred up a hornet's nest.
Over 5,000 angry citizens stormed the Malacañang Palace, the presidential residence of the Philippines, a symbol of power for over 200 years, which was nearly overturned. Riot police and protesters clashed head-on, creating a chaotic scene reminiscent of a battlefield.
Meanwhile, the undercurrents among the 170,000-strong Philippine military suggested they were ready to act at any moment.
Now, Marcos Jr. is besieged on all sides, and Duterte, locked up in prison, might still have a chance to turn the tables. This drama is more thrilling than any political show, and the future of the Philippines is unpredictable.
The catalyst for the event was clear: Marcos Jr. played a harsh hand by arresting Duterte and transferring him to the ICC, accusing him of "crimes against humanity" during the "war on drugs."
This move was ostensibly to clear political rivals but was actually an attempt to leverage foreign powers to bolster his own position. However, he forgot that the Philippines is not his personal playground, and the people are not just bystanders.
On the day of the arrest, over 5,000 people gathered outside the Malacañang Palace, chanting "Release Duterte" and "Marcos Jr. step down," with placards smashing on the ground, and police-citizen conflicts about to erupt. This was not an isolated incident; from Davao in the south to Bataan in the north, protests erupted in 12 major cities simultaneously, with a momentum that was chilling. The Marcos Jr. administration is now in a precarious position, with the situation spiraling out of control much faster than anticipated.
The core of the matter is no longer just about family political strife, but a fatal mistake made by Marcos Jr.—he sold the dignity of the Philippines to foreigners.
No matter how controversial Duterte was, he was still the elected president, chosen by the Filipinos themselves. Marcos Jr., however, colluded with the ICC to send his predecessor away, which in the eyes of any proud Filipino, is a betrayal.
The people are not fools; they don't care about the high-sounding rhetoric of "crimes against humanity." What they see is a president trampling on national sovereignty and throwing the dignity of the Philippines into the trash. As a result, national anger was ignited, and even ordinary people who usually only care about daily necessities took to the streets. This is not just "watching the drama unfold"; it's genuine urgency.
Moreover, Marcos Jr. also angered Duterte's stronghold—Mindanao. This is the Duterte family's stronghold, deeply entrenched and intricately connected. Davao City, the leading city on Mindanao Island, whose mayor is Duterte's son Sebastian, didn't sit idle. He organized a massive rally of 30,000 people locally, with a sea of supporters holding signs for Duterte, shouting resoundingly. Sebastian personally attacked, blasting Marcos Jr. as "never to be loved" and declaring "we will strike back." This was not just a simple protest; it was a declaration of war. If the local forces in Mindanao are determined to oppose Marcos Jr., how long can he stay in power? It's hard to say.
Regarding the arrest itself, its legality is questionable. The Philippines withdrew from the ICC in 2019, which theoretically means the ICC has no jurisdiction over the Philippines. Marcos Jr. claimed it was an "Interpol Red Notice," but his sister Imee Marcos contradicted him, stating it was merely a "diffusion notice," which is entirely different. Now, Marcos Jr. has been stripped of his last shred of dignity, and the arrest of Duterte has turned into a complete political manipulation. Even his own family can't stand it, let alone the public. This flawed operation only worsens Marcos Jr.'s situation.
The military is another ticking time bomb. The 170,000-strong Philippine military is now a weathervane for the situation in the Philippines. The Chief of Staff, General Braun, previously stated "neutrality," which, although sounds mild, is actually a severe slap in the face for Marcos Jr. As the "Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces," if the military doesn't listen to you and says "help neither side," isn't that a public humiliation? Not to mention the news from the southern military district, where some commanders have already been secretly meeting to discuss "upholding national sovereignty." Sounds familiar, right? The "People Power Revolution" that overthrew the elder Marcos started with this rhetoric. Now, it's Marcos Jr.'s turn to taste this flavor. If the military really moves, the 5,000 people storming the presidential palace is just a small scene; a nationwide unrest wouldn't be an exaggeration.
With the situation so chaotic, does Duterte really have a chance to turn things around? Don't be surprised; it's indeed possible. The midterm elections in May are just around the corner, and Duterte's daughter, Sara Duterte, is the vice president, holding resources and a base of public support. If she can lead her family's forces to a significant victory in the elections, securing more leverage, rescuing the elder Duterte isn't a dream. Duterte's prestige in the Philippines isn't so easily undermined; his image as a "drug-fighting hero" during his tenure is deeply ingrained, especially in the southern region, where he has enough fans to stuff the ballot boxes. Now, Marcos Jr. is shooting himself in the foot, forcing the Duterte family to counterattack, and if they lose, it's all over.
The point is straightforward: Marcos Jr. has messed up this time. He thought that capturing the elder Duterte would solve everything, but instead, he pushed himself to the edge of a cliff. Colluding with foreign powers is a provocation to Philippine sovereignty, angering the public is digging his own grave, and the military's non-cooperation is the icing on the cake. He's not solving problems; he's creating crises. On the other hand, the Duterte family is not to be underestimated; the elder Duterte's arrest has become their rallying cry, and with the political skills of Sara and the power of Mindanao, turning the tables is not a fantasy. This game of power isn't just about who has the harder fist; it's about who can capture the hearts of the people.
Everyone must be wondering: Will the military really take action? Will the ICC actually sentence Duterte? Can the midterm elections save the elder Duterte? These questions have no answers, but the clues are all in front of us. The military's secret meetings, the public's fury, and the Duterte family's desperate struggle, each could trigger an even bigger storm. This chess game in the Philippines is no longer just up to Marcos Jr. Want to know the outcome? Keep an eye on Malacañang Palace and Davao City; the answers will eventually emerge.
