On April 7, 2025, multiple Thai media outlets reported that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra issued an "ultimatum" to the leaders of the coalition government parties, demanding that all members of the ruling coalition vote in favor of the "Comprehensive Entertainment Center Act (including legal casinos)" bill during the House of Representatives deliberation on April 9, or he would order the relevant parties to withdraw from the coalition government.
This news immediately caused political turmoil, particularly touching on the sensitive issues of gambling legalization and religious cultural conflicts in Thai society.
Controversial Focus: The Political and Religious Tug-of-War over the Casino Bill
Economic Drive vs Religious Taboo
The bill proposes to establish comprehensive entertainment centers (including casinos) in locations such as Bangkok and Phuket, aimed at boosting tourism and increasing tax revenue. Supporters believe it could create tens of thousands of jobs and increase annual revenue by more than 50 billion Thai Baht.
However, conservative parties like the Nationalist Party strongly oppose it, with many of their members coming from Muslim-majority areas in the south, believing that gambling violates Islamic teachings. The Minister of Justice, Tawi, has publicly warned that the bill could "corrupt the morals of the youth."
The "Shadow Power" Suspicions of the Thaksin Family
Thai media claim that Thaksin, despite having no official position, still effectively controls the coalition government through the Pheu Thai Party. This exposure of his "threat to withdraw from the cabinet" further intensifies suspicions of his "behind-the-scenes governance."
The Secretary-General of the Pheu Thai Party, Sorawong, urgently debunked the rumors, criticizing the unclear sources of the information, and sarcastically remarked, "If this logic holds, could I also fabricate news that I have secretly negotiated with the opposition?"
Reactions from Various Parties: Public Split within the Coalition Government
1. Pheu Thai Party: Urgent Firefighting and Public Relations Battle
Sorawong accused the media of "sacrificing truth for sensationalism," demanding the disclosure of information sources, and emphasized, "Thaksin has never given such an interview."
Party insiders privately revealed that the bill indeed faces resistance from allies like the Nationalist Party, but the "threat to withdraw from the cabinet" is an exaggeration, with actual negotiations leaning more towards interest exchanges (such as securing infrastructure funding for the south).
2. Nationalist Party: The Contradiction between Religious Principles and Political Reality
The party leader Tawi had already expressed his stance through a letter, demanding the addition of "protection of religious culture" clauses to the bill and restricting casino locations away from Muslim communities.
The party's MP Sukarno further exposed internal contradictions on social media, criticizing Tawi's approach of "hiding the risk of crimes by foreigners" within the cabinet.
3. Proud Party and Other Allies: Silent Pressure Test
As a key member of the coalition government, the Proud Party has not yet made a public statement. Analysts believe they might be weighing the economic benefits (casinos boosting the construction industry) against the risk of voter backlash.
In-depth Analysis: The Thaksin Family's "Gambling" and the Thai Political Quagmire
Economic Card vs Legitimacy Crisis
The Thaksin family's push for casino legalization aims to replicate the success story of Singapore, but conservative forces in Thai society (especially the military and the monarchy) have long seen gambling as a moral red line.
If the bill is forcibly passed, it could intensify conflicts with conservatives, repeating the "judicial coup" scenario of 2006—where the Constitutional Court had repeatedly dismissed Thaksin family prime ministers on grounds of unconstitutionality.
The Power Struggle Behind the Media War
This "leak scandal" appears to be an internal pressure tactic by the hardliners (pro-Thaksin) within the Pheu Thai Party against the moderates (like Sorawong), testing the loyalty of various parties.
The "exposure" by Nationalist Party MP Sukarno shows that conservatives are using religious issues to divide the ruling coalition.
Future Outlook: The Potential Impact and Possibility of Passing the Bill
Short-term (April 9 vote): The bill might pass the first reading by a slim margin, but some Nationalist Party members might abstain rather than openly oppose, to avoid breaking the coalition.
Long-term:
If passed: The Constitutional Court might accept "unconstitutionality complaints," sparking a new political crisis;
If shelved: The Pheu Thai Party will face pressure from tourism industry interest groups, and the Thaksin family's reputation could be damaged.
Conclusion
This storm over the casino bill is essentially another power struggle between the "reformists" and "conservatives" in Thailand. Regardless of the outcome, the political acumen of the Thaksin family and the fragility of the coalition government have been clearly exposed. Sorawong's vehement denial reflects the Pheu Thai Party's dilemma between "de-Thaksinization" and "dependence on Thaksin."
