Since the official opening of online gambling in the Netherlands in 2021, the government has quickly introduced a series of restrictive measures, from advertising bans to sponsorship bans, to deposit limits and affordability checks. Today, legal gambling operators are facing severe pressures such as a sharp decline in market profitability and user migration to black market platforms.
Despite the Dutch gambling regulator KSA stating that the "channelization rate" of the legal market is as high as 93%, according to estimates by H2 Gambling Capital, in a total market size of 2.1 billion euros, the market share of the black market and licensed operators is almost equal. More worryingly, by 2030, the legal market may only account for 45% of total revenue.
Strict regulation has led to the successive exits of several operators, including Tombola and LiveScore Bet. The newly implemented sports sponsorship ban has also added to the challenges for licensed parties in terms of brand exposure. Legal expert Justin Franssen points out that the government has yet to realize the risks brought by the rapid expansion of the black market, stating that "politicians always extend a helping hand only after the users are drowning."
Another issue is that the excessive marketing at the beginning of the legal gambling opening in the Netherlands triggered social antipathy, leading to a sharp policy shift. Ironically, the most active in marketing in the Dutch market were the two state-owned entities: Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij. The legal community believes that the government missed an opportunity to guide the market towards regulated development through self-regulation.
Now, with increased political uncertainty, the future of gambling policy is even more unclear. Although the parliament passed a motion in 2024 to ban online slot machines, it has not yet been implemented. With the general election approaching, if the anti-gambling camp gains power, the legal gambling market may face even more severe survival challenges. As industry insiders have said, if the strategy is not adjusted soon, the transformation of Dutch legal gambling from an innovative platform to a regulatory dilemma is just a matter of time.
