As the Lunar New Year approaches, Macau's gaming industry welcomes a "good start". According to the latest report from Seaport Research, Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) in January 2026 is expected to increase by 19% year-on-year, reaching about 21.73 billion Macau patacas (approximately 2.71 billion US dollars). This strong start injects a strong boost into the market recovery for the whole year.
Strong start in January, daily revenue may exceed 850 million
This optimistic forecast is based on the hot holiday data. The report points out that during the New Year's Day holiday from January 1 to 4, Macau's daily average income possibly exceeded 850 million Macau patacas. Analyst Vitaly Umansky believes that this 19% increase is partly due to a low base for comparison, but more importantly, it is driven by the market itself. He emphasizes in the report: "Macau is a long-term growth market, behind which is the increasingly strong wealth effect of China, as well as people's higher gambling propensity and increasing travel expenditures."
The high-end customer group remains the main force, and the recovery of the mass market has potential
Currently, the main engine driving market growth is still the high-end VIP business, as well as the smooth flow of funds from mainland China. However, Umansky also points out that any recovery in the overnight mass market business will further boost overall growth. This will be directly beneficial for operators with more room resources, such as Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment. According to PASA's official website and industry observations, the recovery potential of the mass market business is becoming a new dimension in assessing the long-term value of operators.
The timing of the Spring Festival is key, with growth expected to exceed 14% in the first quarter
The performance in the first quarter of 2026 will largely depend on the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. The official holiday is set from February 16 to 22, and February 14 and 15 fall on the weekend, likely forming an extra-long Golden Week holiday. Therefore, Seaport predicts that Macau's gaming revenue in the first quarter of 2026 will achieve more than 14% growth. The clustering effect of the holidays is expected to bring continuous customer flow and consumption peaks to the casinos.
With the relaxation of visa policies, steady growth is expected throughout the year
Looking ahead to the whole year, Seaport estimates that Macau's total gaming revenue in 2026 will achieve a steady growth of 7%. This expansion expectation is supported by the following two aspects:
The relaxation of visa issuance policies will facilitate more mainland tourists to Macau.
The continuous flow of funds from mainland China is expected to secure high-end business.
Although recent geopolitical concerns have caused fluctuations in gaming stock prices, Seaport still maintains a positive view on this sector. The report believes that the current valuation of major Macau operators is "generally too low", and as the market continues its long-term recovery process, it presents an excellent risk-return ratio for investors.
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