Starting coverage of Flutter this Wednesday (12), the Australian financial services consultancy Macquarie predicts that Flutter can increase its online market share in Brazil by 150% in five years, from 10% to 25%. The company purchased a 56% stake in NSX Group focused on the country in September for US$ 350 million. The deal is expected to close by the second quarter of 2025 and includes the leading Brazilian betting brand Betnacional.
The note from Macquarie, from senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon, said that Flutter's growth in Brazil will be driven by the Flutter Edge technology stack, "which has proven to quickly affect market share gains in new markets".
Brazil is expected to drive an additional 1% of the group's international market share gains between 2026 and 2029. The business arm, which includes NSX Group, has a current estimated value of approximately US$ 1.3 billion, according to Macquarie estimates.
This, Beynon said, represents ~US$ 12 of value per share and US$ 9.5 of valuation creation.
The analyst praised Flutter for successfully managing risk in mergers and acquisitions and taking one of the top two positions in the US through its FanDuel business. He estimates that Flutter's combined global market share is about 16%, including 35% in the UK and Ireland, 33% in North America, 40% in Australia, and 5% for the international market.
Globally, a market share of ~20% is expected to be reached by 2030, thanks in part to its recent wave of acquisitions and the Flutter Edge stack.
On Capital Markets Day on September 25, the operator reported that its acquisition of NSX Group, focused on Brazil, helped it secure an 11% share of Brazil's total online betting market, including its Betfair brand.
It purchased a 56% stake in NSX in September for US$ 350 million. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025 and includes the leading Brazilian betting brand Betnacional. The operator established its Flutter Brazil business as soon as the deal with NSX was confirmed.
Flutter confident in Brazil's opportunity
During Flutter's third-quarter results on November 13, its CFO Rob Coldrake said the company was confident with the progress it had made in Brazil.
"We are excited to leverage what we believe to be a really exciting market with lots of opportunities", he said.
The legal launch of betting in Brazil is imminent, with a set date of January 1, 2025. Flutter was one of the first to apply for a license with the new betting regulator in the summer. However, the sector faced significant backlash in the country after a series of studies suggesting that betting was seriously impacting consumer spending and well-being were released.
More mergers and acquisitions on the cards?
In his note, Beynon also believes that more mergers and acquisitions are on the cards for Flutter in Latin America. The group could also consider "more transformational mergers and acquisitions" in the US, he said, eyeing more opportunities for FanDuel to enter more retail games and lotteries.
Flutter has been on a sort of acquisition spree this year. In September, it informed the market that it had committed to buying the Italian B2C business of Playtech, Snaitech, for €2.3 billion. The addition of Snaitech and the NSX Group is expected to add about 2% to Flutter's international market share.
Macquarie Group Limited, also known as Macquarie Bank, is an Australian multinational banking and financial services company headquartered in Sydney and listed on the ASX. It operates in asset management, retail and commercial banking, wealth management, leasing and asset financing, market access, commodity trading, renewable development, specialized consulting, capital access, and principal investment.
Source: iGB
