Beijing resident Evelyn Lin spent $274,000 in 2018 to buy an apartment in Bangkok, hoping to use it as her residence during vacations in the Thai capital.
However, recent incidents of kidnapping mainland Chinese residents and trafficking Hong Kong residents to scam farms in nearby countries have prevented her from visiting Southeast Asia's most popular tourist destination.
"I spent two months in Thailand last year and thought Bangkok was safe, but the recent news from Thailand has made me worried," said the 39-year-old financial executive. "I have no intention of returning to Thailand."
Although Ms. Lin currently has no plans to sell her Bangkok property, her concerns about personal safety could undermine the confidence of the largest group of foreign investors in the Thai real estate market and harm local homebuilders in an oversupplied situation.
Industry data shows that in the first nine months of 2024, including Hong Kong buyers, Chinese buyers purchased 4,386 residential units, totaling 20.2 billion Thai baht ($596 million). Their purchases exceeded the total spending of the next nine largest groups of foreign investors.
Earlier this month, Chinese actor Wang Xing was rescued from a so-called scam farm in Myawaddy Province, Myanmar. Wang Xing was originally flying to Bangkok to shoot a film but was kidnapped upon arrival.
In another case, a 25-year-old man from Hong Kong returned from a scam farm in Myanmar last week after his family had paid a ransom. A delegation from the Security Bureau has met with Thai authorities to exchange intelligence to rescue another 12 Hong Kong people trapped there.
Thai developers need not worry about negative news. Foreign capital helps alleviate the country's oversupply problem. According to data from the state-run Real Estate Information Center, foreigners accounted for about 25% of condo transactions in the first nine months of 2024.
From 2018 to 2023, Chinese buyers were the most active foreign buyers in the Thai real estate market. According to local media, they snapped up about 38,000 properties, totaling 170 billion Thai baht.
Last year, until September, the pre-sale volume of homes in the Greater Bangkok area dropped by a third to 222 billion Thai baht. The oversupply situation prompted developers to launch various marketing plans to attract buyers, including rent-to-own schemes for ready-to-move-in apartments.
"This plan is designed to help those who need more time to pay off debts, establish a solid financial record, or accumulate enough down payment funds," said Christine Li, Director of Research for Knight Frank Asia-Pacific. "In the short term, these plans can alleviate several pain points for condo buyers."
Li said that although new home sales and ownership transfers were weak, Bangkok's condo market stabilized in the second half of last year. She added that despite various economic stimulus measures supporting the real estate industry, the loan rejection rate still affected the transfer rate.
The Thai government has taken steps to stimulate investment, including legalizing the operation of casinos in the country. Real estate agents hope this move will attract tourists and gamblers, thereby meeting housing demand.
According to real estate tech company Juwai IQI, if this decision is approved by Thai legislators, it could lead to a price increase of up to 10% for luxury apartments. The company's platform has information on $4 trillion worth of global properties.
For example, a research report by Malayan Banking showed that before the Singapore government approved the opening of the first casino in 2010, Singapore's real estate prices soared by about 30% in 2007.
"We found that sellers and sales agents have already mentioned this legislation when marketing to potential homebuyers," said Daniel Ho, co-founder and group managing director. "They say this is a reason to buy because casinos can promote economic growth, tourism, and real estate prices."
As for security risks, Mr. Ho believes that the impact of recent negative news is unlikely to be the last.
"In fact, Thailand is a safe and friendly country, and everyone can see this with their own eyes," he said. "Real security incidents are rare in Thailand, and the Thai government works closely with Beijing to protect Chinese tourists and ensure their trips are enjoyable."
