Recently, the main bases of telecommunications fraud in Myanmar are experiencing an unprecedented storm. Once fraud hotspots like Kokang and Myawaddy are being besieged by various forces, with fraud groups fleeing, some running away, some "surrendering", and others stubbornly resisting. As Myanmar's military government, China, Thailand, and other countries get involved, the situation becomes even more complex.

Attitudes of various forces: Who really wants to sweep clean? Who is watching?

1. Myanmar Government: Under great pressure, they have to intervene

The attitude of Myanmar's military government towards telecom fraud has been ambiguous over the past few years, sometimes cracking down, sometimes turning a blind eye, and even having entanglements with some fraud groups. But now the situation has changed. Under continuous pressure from China, they are being urged to clear out fraud dens and repatriate Chinese nationals working in fraud parks.

Facing international pressure, the Myanmar military government has recently started to express its intention to increase its crackdown efforts, such as on February 14, Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister U Than Swe met with officials from China's Ministry of Public Security to discuss strengthening cooperation in combating online fraud and illegal gambling.

It is reported that to cut off the supply of resources to criminal gangs, the Myanmar government has taken measures to ban the export of fuel from Myanmar to Myawaddy.

Recently, the Kashmir Border Force successfully rescued over 1,000 foreigners controlled by fraud gangs and placed them in a football stadium in Myawaddy.

However, can the military government really completely clear these fraud parks? It's hard to say, as they control limited territory, and many fraud dens are hidden in areas controlled by ethnic armed groups, such as Karen State and Kokang.  

2. Local armed forces: Different attitudes, each with their own calculations

The attitude of ethnic armed groups within Myanmar towards the telecom fraud industry also varies.  

- Kokang: At the end of 2023, the Kokang Alliance Army, together with other ethnic armed groups, launched a large-scale offensive, took over several fraud dens in Kokang, and cooperated with China to deport a large number of telecom fraud suspects. Many fraud leaders were arrested or fled to other countries.  

- Myawaddy (Karen State): The situation here is more complicated. Originally, the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) had close ties with fraud gangs, but recently the situation has suddenly changed.

On February 14, BGF leader Suu Kyi Thu urgently convened a meeting after learning that Thailand was about to issue an arrest warrant for him, announcing a crackdown on fraud gangs and expressing loyalty to the Thai government. This move is more like self-preservation, especially since Thailand is determined to eradicate border fraud crimes.  

- Wa State: Wa State has been relatively indifferent to fraud groups in the past and has not become a major hub for large-scale fraud industries.  

Currently, the fraud dens in the Kokang region have been largely eradicated, while Myawaddy is facing tremendous pressure, and the changing attitude of the Karen Border Guard Force may affect whether the fraud industry here can continue to survive.  

In addition, Laos, which had previously been somewhat inconspicuous, has also started to take action.

A few days ago, Laos first "showed its electricity bill", indicating that it had not provided support to the online fraud parks. Recently, the Deputy Minister of Technology and Communications of Laos, Sairousa Insixiengmai, personally led a team, together with the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Public Security, and several telecommunications service providers, to conduct strict inspections of telecommunications and internet connections entering and exiting near the Laos-Thailand First Friendship Bridge.

Response of fraud gangs: Running away, relocating, or holding out?

Facing the encirclement of multiple countries, the days of fraud gangs are becoming increasingly difficult, but they are also looking for new ways to survive.  

1. Moving to Cambodia, Indonesia, and the Philippines

On February 14, Thailand's Minister of Defense, Prawit Wongsuwan, stated in an interview that some fraud gangs are planning to move their bases from Myanmar to Cambodia. He also emphasized that the Thai government is ready to respond and will not allow these gangs to settle in Thailand.

In fact, not only Cambodia, but some areas in Indonesia and the Philippines have also become new potential targets. Recently, the Philippine government has intensified its crackdown on POGO (Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators) and plans to deport about 11,000 illegal POGO workers.  

2. Small-scale operations, blending into the crowd

Some fraud gangs have abandoned the large park model and instead are covertly operating in cities. A PAOCC official in the Philippines, Cruz, revealed that some fraud gangs are setting up small fraud spots in bustling areas like Manila, Makati, and the Mall of Asia (MOA), trying to evade police crackdowns. This shows that even if fraud gangs are driven out of their main bases, they are still looking for new ways to survive.  

What will the future hold? Can they really be completely eradicated?

Although countries are intensifying their crackdowns recently, completely eliminating these fraud gangs is not easy. The telecom fraud industry has been able to take root in places like Myanmar, Cambodia, and the Philippines, not only because of the protection of local armed groups and corrupt officials but also due to the enforcement capabilities of some countries.

However, the situation has indeed changed: China continues to apply pressure, the Myanmar military government has to state its intention to clear out, Thailand is actively cooperating, and the crackdown intensity in places like the Philippines is also increasing. This encirclement operation may not completely eradicate the fraud gangs, but at least it makes their living environment increasingly difficult.

In the future, if these fraud gangs are completely squeezed out of Myanmar, they may move to other Southeast Asian countries, or even further afield. Whether Southeast Asian countries can really join forces to uproot the telecom fraud industry will depend on whether the actions that follow are strong and sustained enough.