Macau's total gambling revenue in October reached 24.09 billion Macau patacas (about 3 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, setting the highest monthly record since 2019. According to analysis by Harbour Research Partners, this performance far exceeded the market's expected increase of 11.7%, recovering to 91% of the pre-pandemic level for the same period, mainly benefiting from strong consumption by high-end mass market and VIP customers, offsetting the sluggish performance during the Golden Week. Analysts predict that Macau's gambling industry will continue to grow, with total revenue expected to increase by 9.2% year-on-year in 2025, and maintain about a 7% annual growth rate in 2026 and 2027, with high-end customer consumption, visa relaxation, and liquidity stability becoming key driving factors.
Revenue Performance and Market Structure
Macau's total gambling revenue in October was 24.09 billion Macau patacas, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, reaching the highest monthly level since 2019, and recovering to 91% of the pre-pandemic level. The high-end mass market and VIP market performed excellently, compensating for the weakness of the mass market during the Golden Week. Currently, the total revenue of the mass market has exceeded that of 2019 by 118%, with the high-end segment growing by about 45%, while the basic mass market is still down by 5%; the VIP market has recovered to about 30% of the pre-pandemic level. Analysts point out that the influx of wealthy Chinese tourists (especially from Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang) and the optimization of gambling venue operations have supported high-end growth.
Growth Forecast and Driving Factors
Harbour Research predicts that Macau's gambling revenue will increase by 11.5% year-on-year in November, 14.4% in the fourth quarter, and 9.2% for the full year of 2025 (in US dollars), maintaining about a 7% annual growth rate in 2026 and 2027. Growth drivers include the Chinese wealth effect, high gambling propensity, increased tourism spending, and visa policy relaxation. Analysts emphasize that liquidity stability and sustained high-end demand are key to the industry's recovery, and the expansion of digital gambling tables and side bet options is expected to further enhance profitability, with an increase in overnight visitor numbers in 2026 potentially providing a new boost.
Industry Valuation and Investment Views
Despite the strong recovery in operations, Macau's gambling stocks are still undervalued by the market, with the current industry EV/EBITDA multiple at about 9.3 times, a 22% discount from the pre-pandemic 11.9 times. Harbour Research believes that investors are overly pessimistic about structural risks, and the current valuation fully compensates for China-related risks, with significant improvements in industry fundamentals since mid-year. Recommended stocks include Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, and Las Vegas Sands Group, which are expected to benefit the most from the expansion of the high-end market.
