Macau's six major gaming operators, in the last quarter of 2025, although they turned in revenue growth, their profit performance was "disturbed" by some special events. Industry analysts pointed out that the NBA China Game, the 15th National Games, and the adjustment brought by the closure of satellite casinos collectively pushed up operating costs, putting significant pressure on profit margins.
Major events become cost "drivers", eroding operational leverage
Citi analysts bluntly stated that if it were not for the additional expenses brought by several major events and related adjustments, the industry's operational leverage should have been stronger in the fourth quarter. They estimate that the industry's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) grew by 13% year-over-year, reaching close to $2.25 billion. Among them, Sands China, as the promoter of the NBA China Game, hosted the event at The Venetian Macao; while all licensees provided venues and financial support for the 15th National Games held jointly in Macau, Hong Kong, and Guangdong. These investments not only enhanced the city's image and passenger flow but also translated into costs on the balance sheet.
Specifically, Citi expects Sands China's EBITDA for the fourth quarter to grow 8% year-over-year to $616 million, but due to event-related expenses, its profit margin will decline by 1.9 percentage points. Meanwhile, SJM Holdings closed satellite casinos in the second half of 2025 and absorbed about 4,000 employees, a transformation that is also considered to be one of the reasons for its market share dropping from 11.8% in the third quarter to 10.5% in the fourth quarter. J.P. Morgan also expressed a similar view, believing that due to the expenses of the NBA preseason games and the National Games possibly exceeding expectations, there is a downside risk to the fourth quarter's performance.
The market landscape is quietly changing, with top operators showing divergent performances
Another aspect of cost pressure is the quietly changing market landscape. Citi predicts that Galaxy Entertainment Group and MGM China are the two operators with the largest market share growth this quarter. According to the report, Galaxy Entertainment benefited from hosting multiple concerts at Galaxy Macau and some favorable VIP room win rates, increasing its market share from 20.7% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter. The company revealed that it hosted a total of 212 performances and sports events in 2025.
Meanwhile, MGM China's share also rose from 15.5% to about 16.4%. Citi also expects Galaxy Entertainment's earnings improvement to be the strongest, with its EBITDA expected to increase by 31% year-over-year to nearly HK$42.4 billion, with a potential profit margin increase of 2.2 percentage points. To delve deeper into the market dynamics and compliance analysis of Macau's gaming industry, PASA's official website provides detailed industry insights.
Looking ahead to 2026: NBA events return and ongoing transformation
Despite facing cost challenges in the fourth quarter, the industry remains confident in the marketing value of future large-scale events. NBA and Sands China have jointly announced that in October 2026, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets will return to The Venetian Macao for two preseason games. Sands China will continue to serve as the official integrated resort partner and event promoter.
Patrick Dumont, President and COO of Las Vegas Sands, praised the marketing value of the 2025 events as "very strong" and looks forward to providing an excellent experience for teams and fans again in 2026. This series of arrangements indicates that attracting customer groups and enhancing destination brand image through top sports IPs remains a core strategy for operators. Under the dual effects of large-scale events and internal structural adjustments, Macau's gaming industry is entering a new phase focusing more on quality, experience, and sustainability.
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